Start Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Justin Herbert over Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.

Justin Herbert is priced by the books at 9.4 projected points. Patrick Mahomes has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 105 and Patrick Mahomes at 112. Market coverage on Justin Herbert is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 9.4 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Justin Herbert and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 14.3 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 209 yards and a touchdown against ARI, with an interception.

Patrick Mahomes and KC host DEN.

DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justin Herbert was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Patrick Mahomes was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 15 of 2025 against KC: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 0 yards, 11.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Justin Herbert scored 14.3 PPR points and Patrick Mahomes scored 22.7.

The call was wrong: Patrick Mahomes outscored Justin Herbert by 8.4.

Justin Herbert finished 4.9 points above the 9.4 the props implied.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards, 14.3 PPR points.

Justin Herbert finished as the week's QB22 in PPR scoring.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 7 carries for 23 yards, 22.7 PPR points.

Patrick Mahomes finished as the week's QB9 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Justin Herbert over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Justin Herbert over Bo Nix.
• Start Brock Purdy over Justin Herbert.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Baker Mayfield.
• Start Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes.