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Should I start Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes in Week 10?

Updated Nov 10, 9:36 AM ET.

Latest

  • : Justin Herbert: Listed Questionable (Finger) (Sleeper injury feed)
  • : Patrick Mahomes: Listed Questionable (Elbow) (Sleeper injury feed)

Start Patrick Mahomes: 98 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Justin Herbert's 93 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

Should I drop Justin Herbert for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 139 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 8 games), Justin Herbert 112 (14.0 a game over 8 games). Justin Herbert is listed questionable. Patrick Mahomes is listed questionable.

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Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

QB22 · LAC · bye 7

2026 vs pass yds line 3-5

Market-based projection
13.7 pts a game Wk 9 price
Overall rank
150

QB23 · KC · bye 5

2026 vs pass yds line 4-4

Market-based projection
21.8 pts a game Wk 9 price
Overall rank
151

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The gap

  • Board size306 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Justin Herbert, and the board ranks him 150th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 23; 2QB: ADP 12.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Patrick Mahomes, and the board ranks him 151st overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Justin Herbert is 1.0 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 0 percent of what a quarterback's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 1.0 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 0 percent of what a quarterback's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Justin Herbert's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Justin Herbert has been on the field for 97 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 287 times and thrown 7.8 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 56 of 287 dropbacks and scrambled 23 times.

In Week 6 against KC he completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 5 times for 26 yards.

In Week 8 against LAR he completed 24 of 31 passes for 257 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 4 times for 15 yards.

In Week 9 against HOU he completed 13 of 23 passes for 193 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 7 yards.

Through Week 9, Patrick Mahomes has been on the field for 99 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 289 times and thrown 5.6 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 49 of 289 dropbacks and scrambled 15 times.

In Week 7 against SEA he completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 14 yards.

In Week 8 against DEN he completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

In Week 9 against NYJ he completed 23 of 31 passes for 242 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 8 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Justin Herbert played 16 games and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He threw for 3727 yards on 512 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That came to 32.0 attempts a game at 7.3 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes played 14 games and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He threw for 3587 yards on 502 attempts with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

That came to 35.9 attempts a game at 7.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes scored 21.2 PPR points a game and Justin Herbert 18.7, 2.4 a game between them.

Justin Herbert finished QB10 that year and Patrick Mahomes QB11.

Justin Herbert had 10 more pass attempts than Patrick Mahomes, 512 to 502.

Justin Herbert had 140 more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes, 3727 to 3587.

This season Patrick Mahomes holds the bigger snap share, 99 percent against 97 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Justin Herbert is off in Week 7 and Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

Justin Herbert is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Justin Herbert for Patrick Mahomes?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 139 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 8 games), Justin Herbert 112 (14.0 a game over 8 games). Justin Herbert is listed questionable. Patrick Mahomes is listed questionable.

  • Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Justin Herbert?

    No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 139 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 8 games), Justin Herbert 112 (14.0 a game over 8 games). Patrick Mahomes is listed questionable. Justin Herbert is listed questionable.

Both players in full

Week 10 on the board

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