Start Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert? Week 2

Our Week 2 call

Start Justin Herbert over Patrick Mahomes in Week 2.

De-vigged player props project Justin Herbert at 16.6 points and Patrick Mahomes at 16.0, a gap of 0.7. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have. Drafters take Justin Herbert at ADP 109 and Patrick Mahomes at 111.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Justin Herbert, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

Player prop markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

That puts Justin Herbert 0.7 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the books.

Week 2 matchups

Justin Herbert and LAC host LV on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LV allowed 17.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 220 yards and no touchdowns against LV, with an interception.

Patrick Mahomes and KC host IND on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

IND allowed 25.0 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 7th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 324 yards and a touchdown against IND, with no interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justin Herbert is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 2

Through Week 1, Justin Herbert played 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 35 times and threw an average of 10.1 air yards per attempt.

Justin Herbert, Week 1 against ARI: 55 of 55 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 29 yards.

Through Week 1, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 33 times and threw an average of 4.9 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 27 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justin Herbert played 16 games for LAC and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He completed 340 of 512 passes for 3727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Herbert, Week 17 of 2025 against HOU: 63 of 63 snaps, 21 of 32 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 6 carries for 37 yards, 16.1 PPR points.

Justin Herbert, Week 16 of 2025 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 42 yards, 30.2 PPR points.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

Their other Week 2 calls

• Start Baker Mayfield over Justin Herbert.
• Start Bo Nix over Justin Herbert.
• Start Brock Purdy over Justin Herbert.
• Start Baker Mayfield over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Jared Goff over Patrick Mahomes.