Start Zay Flowers or Justin Jefferson? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Justin Jefferson over Zay Flowers in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Justin Jefferson at 15.4 points and Zay Flowers at 17.0, a gap of 1.7. Zay Flowers's number is scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 17.0 fantasy points for Zay Flowers, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Zay Flowers at 71.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions, with a 47% chance to score a touchdown (7, 6 and 6 books).

Player prop markets imply 15.4 fantasy points for Justin Jefferson, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The books have Justin Jefferson at 69.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions, with a 37% chance to score a touchdown (15, 13 and 15 books).

That puts Zay Flowers 1.7 points ahead of Justin Jefferson on the books.

Week 3 matchups

Justin Jefferson and MIN visit TB on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

TB allowed 24.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 2 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 117 yards and 0.5 touchdowns a game against TB.

Injury status

Zay Flowers is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Justin Jefferson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 1, Zay Flowers played 29 percent of BAL snaps, drew 25 percent of the targets, earned 34 percent of the air yards and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

Zay Flowers, Week 1 against IND: 20 of 68 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 150 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 2, Justin Jefferson played 96 percent of MIN snaps, drew 36 percent of the targets, earned 51 percent of the air yards and had 21 percent of the red zone chances.

Justin Jefferson, Week 1 against GB: 60 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson, Week 2 against CHI: 52 of 52 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Zay Flowers played 17 games for BAL and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets and 753 air yards.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Zay Flowers, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 6 targets and 4 catches for 138 yards, 2 touchdowns, 29.8 PPR points.

Zay Flowers, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 52 of 76 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 30 yards, 1 touchdown, 13.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Justin Jefferson played 17 games for MIN and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 597 air yards.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Justin Jefferson, Week 18 of 2025 against GB: 1 carry for 3 yards, 11 targets and 8 catches for 101 yards, 18.4 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start CeeDee Lamb over Zay Flowers.
• Start Zay Flowers over Chris Olave.
• Start Zay Flowers over Davante Adams.
• Start Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave.
• Start Justin Jefferson over Christian Watson.
• Start Justin Jefferson over Davante Adams.