Start Keaton Mitchell or Kaelon Black? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Keaton Mitchell over Kaelon Black in Week 1.

Keaton Mitchell is priced by the books at 2.8 projected points. Kaelon Black has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 166 and Kaelon Black at 178. Market coverage on Keaton Mitchell is 60 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 2.8 fantasy points for Keaton Mitchell, with 60 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Kaelon Black in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.

Kaelon Black and SF visit LAR.

LAR allowed 21.8 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 14th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 133 yards and no touchdowns against LAR and caught passes for 25 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Kaelon Black has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Keaton Mitchell was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Kaelon Black was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.

He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.

He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Kaelon Black scored 8.0.

The call was wrong: Kaelon Black outscored Keaton Mitchell by 7.1.

Keaton Mitchell finished 1.9 points below the 2.8 the props implied.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.

Kaelon Black, Week 1 against LAR: 28 of 65 snaps, 14 carries for 65 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 8.0 PPR points.

Kaelon Black finished as the week's RB35 in PPR scoring.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Alvin Kamara over Keaton Mitchell.
• Start Keaton Mitchell over Braelon Allen.
• Start Keaton Mitchell over Brian Robinson.
• Start Brian Robinson over Kaelon Black.
• Start Chris Rodriguez Jr. over Kaelon Black.
• Start Dylan Sampson over Kaelon Black.