Start Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Patrick Mahomes over Kyler Murray
Right: 22.7 to 0.6
- DEN D vs QB
- 22.7
- 9th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 100%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 22.7
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 8.0
- fantasy pts
- GB D vs QB
- 19.8
- 12th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 17%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 0.6
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Patrick Mahomes over Kyler Murray in Week 1.
Kyler Murray is priced by the books at 8.0 projected points and Patrick Mahomes is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Patrick Mahomes at ADP 112 and Kyler Murray at 128.
What the books imply
No sportsbook posted a player market for Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.
Player prop markets imply 8.0 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 25 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
Week 1 matchups
Patrick Mahomes and KC host DEN.
DEN allowed 22.7 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 9th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against DEN, with an interception.
Kyler Murray and MIN host GB on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
GB allowed 19.8 fantasy points to QBs in its one game this season, the 12th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns against GB, with an interception.
By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Patrick Mahomes was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Kyler Murray was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.
He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.
In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.
He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.
He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
How Week 1 went
Patrick Mahomes scored 22.7 PPR points and Kyler Murray scored 0.6.
The call was right: Patrick Mahomes outscored Kyler Murray by 22.0.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 7 carries for 23 yards, 22.7 PPR points.
Patrick Mahomes finished as the week's QB9 in PPR scoring.
Kyler Murray finished 7.4 points below the 8.0 the props implied.
Kyler Murray, Week 1 against GB: 11 of 65 snaps, 3 of 5 passes for 18 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 9 yards, 0.6 PPR points.
Kyler Murray finished as the week's QB35 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
On the draft board
Ranked ahead
QB20 · KC · bye 5
2025 vs pass yds line 6-8
- Overall rank
- 45
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 1
Ranked behind
QB28 · MIN · bye 6
2025 vs pass yds line 0-5
- Overall rank
- 184
- Draft pick
- no consensus
- Tier
- 6
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
The gap between them
- Spots apart on the board139
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Tierstier 1 and tier 6
- Board size244 draftable players
Drafting soon? Use the free live draft assistant
It reranks the board after every pick and shows who is falling past ADP at your slot. No sign in, nothing to install.
Open the draft assistant