Start Patrick Mahomes or Tyler Shough? Week 3

Our Week 3 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Tyler Shough in Week 3.

De-vigged player props project Patrick Mahomes at 19.3 points and Tyler Shough at 19.2, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: the books have not posted every stat the position needs, so the rest is estimated from what they have.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 19.3 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Patrick Mahomes at 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 17.5 rushing yards, with a 22% chance to score a touchdown (15, 17, 13 and 14 books).

Player prop markets imply 19.2 fantasy points for Tyler Shough, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The books have Tyler Shough at 251.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 14.5 rushing yards, with a 24% chance to score a touchdown (14, 17, 12 and 15 books).

That puts Patrick Mahomes 0.1 points ahead of Tyler Shough on the books.

Injury status

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Tyler Shough is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 3

Through Week 2, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 84 times and threw an average of 5.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 1 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 27 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Through Week 2, Tyler Shough played 100 percent of NO snaps, dropped back 101 times and threw an average of 7.8 air yards per attempt.

Tyler Shough, Week 1 against DET: 90 of 90 snaps, 35 of 55 passes for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 4 carries for 8 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 2 against BAL: 68 of 68 snaps, 27 of 34 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 24 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 15 of 2025 against LAC: 56 of 61 snaps, 16 of 28 passes for 189 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 15 yards, 14.1 PPR points.

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Tyler Shough, Week 18 of 2025 against ATL: 23 of 35 passes for 259 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 34 yards, 22.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 3 calls

• Start Brock Purdy over Patrick Mahomes.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Dak Prescott.
• Start Patrick Mahomes over Drake Maye.
• Start Brock Purdy over Tyler Shough.
• Start Tyler Shough over Dak Prescott.
• Start Tyler Shough over Drake Maye.