Michael Mayer or Darren Waller: who should I start in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Michael Mayer's market-based projection is 7.1 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 101st highest figure of the 157 players with a market-based projection.

Darren Waller's market-based projection is 6.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 9 market sources. That is the 104th highest figure of the 157 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Michael Mayer: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 101st overall on the rest of his evidence.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Darren Waller: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 106th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Michael Mayer has been on the field for 82 percent of LV snaps, drawn 15 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 4 of the offence's 50 third down targets, had 1 of its 11 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 29 two minute targets.

His 25 targets have averaged 4.7 air yards.

In Week 3 against NO he caught 3 of 3 targets for 32 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 4 against KC he caught 8 of 10 targets for 82 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against NE he caught 1 of 1 target for 2 yards and did not score.

Through Week 4, Darren Waller has been on the field for 46 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 13 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 5 of the offence's 32 third down targets, had 0 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 7 of its 25 two minute targets.

His 19 targets have averaged 7.4 air yards.

In Week 2 against ATL he caught 3 of 3 targets for 33 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

In Week 3 against CLE he caught 5 of 8 targets for 51 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against DET he caught 3 of 6 targets for 36 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Michael Mayer played 13 games and scored 73.8 PPR points, 5.7 a game, finishing TE38.

He caught 35 of 50 targets for 328 yards and 1 touchdown, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 3.8 targets a game, a 70 percent catch rate and 9.4 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 57 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Darren Waller played 9 games and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets.

That came to 3.8 targets a game, a 71 percent catch rate and 11.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Michael Mayer was available for 4 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Darren Waller scored 9.9 PPR points a game and Michael Mayer 5.7, 4.2 a game between them.

Michael Mayer finished TE38 that year and Darren Waller TE33.

Michael Mayer had 16 more targets than Darren Waller, 50 to 34.

Michael Mayer had 45 more receiving yards than Darren Waller, 328 to 283.

This season Michael Mayer holds the bigger snap share, 82 percent against 46 percent.

This season Michael Mayer holds the bigger target share, 15 percent against 13 percent.

What would change the answer

0.2 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market-based projection when it does.