Start Keaton Mitchell or Dylan Sampson? Week 1

Our Week 1 call

Start Keaton Mitchell over Dylan Sampson in Week 1.

Keaton Mitchell is priced by the books at 1.9 projected points. Dylan Sampson has no player market posted for this week, so his side of this call rests on consensus ADP and the news wire only. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 182 and Dylan Sampson at 184. Market coverage on Keaton Mitchell is 33 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the books imply

Player prop markets imply 1.9 fantasy points for Keaton Mitchell, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

No sportsbook posted a player market for Dylan Sampson in Week 1.

Week 1 matchups

Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.

Dylan Sampson and CLE visit JAX.

JAX allowed 12.6 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 34 yards and no touchdowns against JAX and caught passes for 42 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Dylan Sampson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Keaton Mitchell was listed as questionable when the call was made.

Dylan Sampson was not on the injury report when the call was made.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.

He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.

He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.

In 2025, Dylan Sampson played 15 games for CLE and scored 87.6 PPR points, 5.8 a game, finishing RB55.

He ran 65 times for 175 yards and 0 touchdowns, and caught 33 of 40 targets for 271 yards.

He was on the field for 25 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Dylan Sampson, Week 18 of 2025 against CIN: 10 carries for 32 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 12 yards, 6.4 PPR points.

Dylan Sampson, Week 17 of 2025 against PIT: 18 of 52 snaps, 11 carries for 27 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 0 yards, 5.7 PPR points.

How Week 1 went

Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Dylan Sampson scored 0.0.

The call was right: Keaton Mitchell outscored Dylan Sampson by 0.9.

Keaton Mitchell finished 1.0 points below the 1.9 the props implied.

Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.

Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.

Dylan Sampson, Week 1 against JAX: 0 carries for 0 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Their other Week 1 calls

• Start Alvin Kamara over Keaton Mitchell.
• Start Keaton Mitchell over Braelon Allen.
• Start Keaton Mitchell over Brian Robinson.
• Start Dylan Sampson over Braelon Allen.
• Start Dylan Sampson over Brian Robinson.
• Start Chris Rodriguez Jr. over Dylan Sampson.