Start Justice Hill or Keaton Mitchell? Week 1
Locks at kickoff, graded after.
Start Keaton Mitchell over Justice Hill
Wrong: 0.9 to 3.8- ARI D vs RB
- 9.2
- 3rd fewest to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 31%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 0%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 0.9
- PPR pts
- Books imply
- 1.1
- fantasy pts
- IND D vs RB
- 39.1
- 3rd most to RBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 46%
- Week 1
- Target share
- 4%
- Week 1
- Scored
- 3.8
- PPR pts
Our Week 1 call
Start Keaton Mitchell over Justice Hill in Week 1.
Justice Hill is priced by the books at 1.1 projected points and Keaton Mitchell is not priced at all, so we are leaning on where drafters take them. Drafters take Keaton Mitchell at ADP 185 and Justice Hill at 183.
What the books imply
Player prop markets imply 1.1 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 33 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.
No sportsbook posted a player market for Keaton Mitchell in Week 1.
Week 1 matchups
Justice Hill and BAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
IND allowed 39.1 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
Running backs ran for 162 yards and 3 touchdowns against IND and caught passes for 29 more yards.
Keaton Mitchell and LAC host ARI.
ARI allowed 9.2 fantasy points to RBs in its one game this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.
Running backs ran for 52 yards and a touchdown against ARI and caught passes for 0 more yards.
By points allowed to the position, Justice Hill has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Justice Hill was not on the injury report when the call was made.
Keaton Mitchell was listed as questionable when the call was made.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.
He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.
He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Keaton Mitchell played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing RB67.
He ran 59 times for 341 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 9 of 12 targets for 63 yards.
He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 18 of 2025 against PIT: 2 carries for 2 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.2 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 17 of 2025 against GB: 14 of 76 snaps, 9 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 5.8 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 16 of 2025 against NE: 19 of 55 snaps, 9 carries for 13 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1.3 PPR points.
How Week 1 went
Keaton Mitchell scored 0.9 PPR points and Justice Hill scored 3.8.
The call was wrong: Justice Hill outscored Keaton Mitchell by 2.9.
Keaton Mitchell, Week 1 against ARI: 17 of 55 snaps, 4 carries for 9 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 0.9 PPR points.
Keaton Mitchell finished as the week's RB69 in PPR scoring.
Justice Hill finished 2.7 points above the 1.1 the props implied.
Justice Hill, Week 1 against IND: 31 of 68 snaps, 6 carries for 18 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 10 yards, 3.8 PPR points.
Justice Hill finished as the week's RB51 in PPR scoring.
Their other Week 1 calls
The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 1, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
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