Should I start Justin Herbert or Jalen Nailor in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Justin Herbert's market-based projection is 13.9 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 54th highest figure of the 204 players with a market-based projection.

Jalen Nailor's market-based projection is 6.2 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 11 market sources. That is the 127th highest figure of the 204 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Justin Herbert: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 145th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 23; 2QB: ADP 12.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Jalen Nailor: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 143rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Justin Herbert has been on the field for 100 percent of LAC snaps, dropped back 175 times and thrown 8.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 36 of 175 dropbacks and scrambled 16 times.

In Week 3 against BUF he completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 4 times for 17 yards.

In Week 4 against SEA he completed 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions and ran 6 times for 40 yards.

In Week 5 against DEN he completed 14 of 23 passes for 121 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 6 times for 54 yards.

Through Week 4, Jalen Nailor has been on the field for 48 percent of LV snaps, drawn 8 percent of the targets and had 3 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 39 third down targets, had 0 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 28 two minute targets.

His 11 targets have averaged 12.3 air yards.

In Week 2 against LAC he caught 1 of 3 targets for 9 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against NO he caught 1 of 3 targets for 16 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against KC he was not given the ball.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Justin Herbert played 16 games and scored 299.9 PPR points, 18.7 a game, finishing QB10.

He threw for 3727 yards on 512 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and ran for 498 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That came to 32.0 attempts a game at 7.3 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Jalen Nailor played 17 games and scored 100.7 PPR points, 5.9 a game, finishing WR61.

He caught 29 of 53 targets for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets.

That came to 3.1 targets a game, a 55 percent catch rate and 15.3 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 65 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Jalen Nailor was available for 1 game more.

Side by side

In 2025 Justin Herbert scored 18.7 PPR points a game and Jalen Nailor 5.9, 12.8 a game between them.

Justin Herbert finished QB10 and Jalen Nailor WR61, which are two different ladders.

Justin Herbert is a quarterback and Jalen Nailor a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Justin Herbert is off in Week 7 and Jalen Nailor in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

7.7 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market-based projection when it does.