Should I start A.J. Brown or Carnell Tate in Week 6?

The market-based projections

A.J. Brown's market-based projection is 11.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 72nd highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

Carnell Tate's market-based projection is 11.3 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 75th highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on A.J. Brown, and the board ranks him 58th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 23.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Carnell Tate, and the board ranks him 67th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 1, A.J. Brown has been on the field for 44 percent of NE snaps, drawn 13 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 11 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 0 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 4 targets have averaged 4.8 air yards.

In Week 1 against SEA he caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

Through Week 5, Carnell Tate has been on the field for 82 percent of TEN snaps, drawn 26 percent of the targets and had 2 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 10 of the offence's 40 third down targets, had 0 of its 12 chances inside the five and seen 9 of its 29 two minute targets.

His 37 targets have averaged 13.3 air yards.

In Week 3 against NYG he caught 6 of 9 targets for 58 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against BAL he caught 9 of 12 targets for 145 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against HOU he caught 1 of 5 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 A.J. Brown played 15 games and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets.

That came to 8.1 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 12.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Carnell Tate is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

Head to head

This season Carnell Tate holds the bigger snap share, 82 percent against 44 percent.

This season Carnell Tate holds the bigger target share, 26 percent against 13 percent.

Byes and availability

A.J. Brown is off in Week 11 and Carnell Tate in Week 9, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.6 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.