Start Garrett Wilson or Zay Flowers? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:31 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Zay Flowers over Garrett Wilson

Start

Zay Flowers

WR · BAL · vs CIN

Market projects: 16.7; recent weeks avg
CIN D vs WR: 29.5; 11th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 55%; Through Week 6
Target share: 31%; Through Week 6

Sit

Garrett Wilson

WR · NYJ · vs MIA

Market projects: 16.4; recent weeks avg
MIA D vs WR: 23.2; 2nd fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 89%; Through Week 6
Target share: 29%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Zay Flowers for Garrett Wilson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Garrett Wilson projects 162 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.2 a game over 10 games), Zay Flowers 148 (14.8 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Zay Flowers over Garrett Wilson. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Zay Flowers over Garrett Wilson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Zay Flowers at 16.7 points and Garrett Wilson at 16.4, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Zay Flowers this week yet, so his 16.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (18.8 and 14.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Garrett Wilson this week yet, so his 16.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.7 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Zay Flowers at ADP 24 and Garrett Wilson at 27.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Zay Flowers yet. His market-based projections were 18.8 and 14.6 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Garrett Wilson yet. His market-based projections were 16.7 and 16.0 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Zay Flowers 0.4 points ahead of Garrett Wilson on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Zay Flowers and BAL host CIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CIN allowed 29.5 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 123 yards and a touchdown a game against CIN.

Garrett Wilson and NYJ host MIA on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIA allowed 23.2 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 110 yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game against MIA.

By points allowed to the position, Zay Flowers has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Zay Flowers is not on the injury report.

Garrett Wilson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Zay Flowers played 55 percent of BAL snaps, drew 31 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Zay Flowers, Week 3 against DAL: 21 of 64 snaps, 1 carry for 20 yards, 6 targets and 5 catches for 84 yards.

Zay Flowers, Week 4 against TEN: 47 of 64 snaps, 10 targets and 8 catches for 118 yards, 1 touchdown.

Zay Flowers, Week 5 against ATL: 62 of 76 snaps, 1 carry for 13 yards, 9 targets and 8 catches for 53 yards.

Zay Flowers, Week 6 against CLE: 1 carry for 1 yards, 11 targets and 6 catches for 66 yards.

Through Week 6, Garrett Wilson played 89 percent of NYJ snaps, drew 29 percent of the targets, earned 37 percent of the air yards and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.

Garrett Wilson, Week 3 against DET: 62 of 66 snaps, 13 targets and 10 catches for 107 yards, 1 touchdown.

Garrett Wilson, Week 4 against CHI: 32 of 32 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Garrett Wilson, Week 5 against CLE: 65 of 70 snaps, 11 targets and 7 catches for 104 yards, 1 touchdown.

Garrett Wilson, Week 6 against NE: 6 targets and 4 catches for 44 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Zay Flowers played 17 games for BAL and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets and 753 air yards.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Garrett Wilson played 7 games for NYJ and scored 99.5 PPR points, 14.2 a game, finishing WR62.

He caught 36 of 59 targets for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 2 red zone targets and 291 air yards.

He was on the field for 89 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Zay Flowers for Garrett Wilson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Garrett Wilson projects 162 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.2 a game over 10 games), Zay Flowers 148 (14.8 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Zay Flowers over Garrett Wilson. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Garrett Wilson for Zay Flowers?
No. Keep Garrett Wilson: he projects 162 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.2 a game over 10 games), Zay Flowers 148 (14.8 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Zay Flowers over Garrett Wilson.