Should I start Josh Downs or A.J. Brown in Week 6?
Both players' season market-based projection, their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, with the draft market's own figures wherever it still has them.
Week 6 verdict
Start A.J. Brown over Josh Downs
Brown projects lower, 11.8 to 12.3, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 17 for Brown, 96 for Downs.
- Market projects
- 11.8
- fantasy pts
- NYJ D vs WR
- 28.5
- 10th fewest to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 44%
- Through Week 1
- Target share
- 13%
- Through Week 1
- Market projects
- 12.3
- fantasy pts
- TEN D vs WR
- 35.9
- 11th most to WRs (2026)
- Snap share
- 80%
- Through Week 5
- Target share
- 20%
- Through Week 5
Start A.J. Brown over Josh Downs in Week 6. Brown projects lower, 11.8 to 12.3, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 17 for Brown, 96 for Downs.
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Your next move
More fantasy football tools and rankings, all built from the same board.
WR19 · IND · bye 13
2026 vs anytime td line 0-5
- Market-based projection
- 12.2 pts a game
- Draft pick
- no draft data
WR23 · NE · bye 11
2025 vs rec yds line 6-9
- Market-based projection
- 11.8 pts a game
- Draft pick
- no draft data
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Also deciding this week
The gap
- Draft positionno current draft data for both
- Price difference0.4 points a game
- Board size329 draftable players
Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from the market projection.
The market-based projections
Josh Downs's market-based projection is 12.2 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 61st highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.
A.J. Brown's market-based projection is 11.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 72nd highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.
Where the draft room stands
Live drafts hold no current pick on Josh Downs, and the board ranks him 54th overall on the rest of his evidence.
Live drafts hold no current pick on A.J. Brown, and the board ranks him 58th overall on the rest of his evidence.
In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 23.
This season so far
Through Week 5, Josh Downs has been on the field for 80 percent of IND snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.
He has taken 12 of the offence's 41 third down targets, had 0 of its 16 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 16 two minute targets.
His 34 targets have averaged 11.1 air yards.
In Week 3 against HOU he caught 5 of 11 targets for 77 yards and did not score.
In Week 4 against WAS he caught 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards and did not score.
In Week 5 against PIT he caught 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards and did not score.
Through Week 1, A.J. Brown has been on the field for 44 percent of NE snaps, drawn 13 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.
He has taken 3 of the offence's 11 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 0 of its 6 two minute targets.
His 4 targets have averaged 4.8 air yards.
In Week 1 against SEA he caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and did not score.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.
He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.
That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.
He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.
In 2025 A.J. Brown played 15 games and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.
He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets.
That came to 8.1 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 12.9 yards a catch.
He was on the field for 91 percent of the snaps in the games he played.
Josh Downs was available for 1 game more.
Head to head
In 2025 A.J. Brown scored 14.7 PPR points a game and Josh Downs 8.5, 6.2 a game between them.
Josh Downs finished WR44 that year and A.J. Brown WR11.
A.J. Brown had 33 more targets than Josh Downs, 121 to 88.
A.J. Brown had 437 more receiving yards than Josh Downs, 1003 to 566.
This season Josh Downs holds the bigger snap share, 80 percent against 44 percent.
This season Josh Downs holds the bigger target share, 20 percent against 13 percent.
Byes and availability
Josh Downs is off in Week 13 and A.J. Brown in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.
What would change the answer
0.4 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.
The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.
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