Should I start Zay Flowers or A.J. Brown in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Zay Flowers's market-based projection is 13.4 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 56th highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

A.J. Brown's market-based projection is 11.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 72nd highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Zay Flowers, and the board ranks him 40th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on A.J. Brown, and the board ranks him 58th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 23.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Zay Flowers has been on the field for 55 percent of BAL snaps, drawn 30 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 26 third down targets, had 0 of its 21 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 26 two minute targets.

His 31 targets have averaged 8.6 air yards.

In Week 3 against DAL he carried 1 time for 20 yards, caught 5 of 6 targets for 84 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against TEN he caught 8 of 10 targets for 118 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 5 against ATL he carried 1 time for 13 yards, caught 8 of 9 targets for 53 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, A.J. Brown has been on the field for 44 percent of NE snaps, drawn 13 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 11 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 0 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 4 targets have averaged 4.8 air yards.

In Week 1 against SEA he caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Zay Flowers played 17 games and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets.

That came to 6.9 targets a game, a 73 percent catch rate and 14.1 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 A.J. Brown played 15 games and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets.

That came to 8.1 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 12.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Zay Flowers was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 A.J. Brown scored 14.7 PPR points a game and Zay Flowers 14.3, 0.4 a game between them.

Zay Flowers finished WR7 that year and A.J. Brown WR11.

A.J. Brown had 3 more targets than Zay Flowers, 121 to 118.

Zay Flowers had 208 more receiving yards than A.J. Brown, 1211 to 1003.

This season Zay Flowers holds the bigger snap share, 55 percent against 44 percent.

This season Zay Flowers holds the bigger target share, 30 percent against 13 percent.

Byes and availability

Zay Flowers is off in Week 13 and A.J. Brown in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.6 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.