Should I start Zay Flowers or Luther Burden III in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Zay Flowers's market-based projection is 13.4 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 56th highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

Luther Burden III's market-based projection is 12.6 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 59th highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Zay Flowers, and the board ranks him 40th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Luther Burden III, and the board ranks him 45th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 39.

This season through Week 5

Through Week 5, Zay Flowers has been on the field for 55 percent of BAL snaps, drawn 30 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 26 third down targets, had 0 of its 21 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 26 two minute targets.

His 31 targets have averaged 8.6 air yards.

In Week 3 against DAL he carried 1 time for 20 yards, caught 5 of 6 targets for 84 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against TEN he caught 8 of 10 targets for 118 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 5 against ATL he carried 1 time for 13 yards, caught 8 of 9 targets for 53 yards and did not score.

Through Week 5, Luther Burden III has been on the field for 64 percent of CHI snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 5 of the offence's 43 third down targets, had 2 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 28 two minute targets.

His 35 targets have averaged 9.0 air yards.

In Week 3 against PHI he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 7 of 11 targets for 61 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 4 against NYJ he carried 1 time for 11 yards, caught 4 of 6 targets for 63 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against GB he carried 4 times for 2 yards, caught 4 of 6 targets for 47 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Zay Flowers played 17 games and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets.

That came to 6.9 targets a game, a 73 percent catch rate and 14.1 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Luther Burden III played 15 games and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 78 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Zay Flowers was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Zay Flowers scored 14.3 PPR points a game and Luther Burden III 8.5, 5.8 a game between them.

Zay Flowers finished WR7 that year and Luther Burden III WR48.

Zay Flowers had 58 more targets than Luther Burden III, 118 to 60.

Zay Flowers had 559 more receiving yards than Luther Burden III, 1211 to 652.

This season Luther Burden III holds the bigger snap share, 64 percent against 55 percent.

This season Zay Flowers holds the bigger target share, 30 percent against 22 percent.

Byes and availability

Zay Flowers is off in Week 13 and Luther Burden III in Week 10, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.8 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.