Nico Collins or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Nico Collins's market-based projection is 15.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 36th highest figure of the 158 players with a market-based projection.

Tetairoa McMillan's market-based projection is 14.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 48th highest figure of the 158 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Nico Collins: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 22nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Tetairoa McMillan: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 32nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Nico Collins has been on the field for 71 percent of HOU snaps, drawn 26 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 19 third down targets, had 0 of its 5 chances inside the five and seen 4 of its 15 two minute targets.

His 25 targets have averaged 12.6 air yards.

In Week 1 against BUF he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 7 of 10 targets for 75 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 4 against DAL he caught 7 of 8 targets for 118 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

In Week 5 against TEN he caught 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards and did not score.

Through Week 4, Tetairoa McMillan has been on the field for 87 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 27 percent of the targets and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 7 of the offence's 32 third down targets, had 3 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 25 two minute targets.

His 39 targets have averaged 11.5 air yards.

In Week 2 against ATL he caught 5 of 10 targets for 101 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against CLE he caught 2 of 5 targets for 17 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against DET he caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Nico Collins played 15 games and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets.

That came to 8.0 targets a game, a 59 percent catch rate and 15.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan played 17 games and scored 211.4 PPR points, 12.4 a game, finishing WR16.

He caught 70 of 122 targets for 1014 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets.

That came to 7.2 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 15 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Tetairoa McMillan was available for 2 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Nico Collins scored 15.1 PPR points a game and Tetairoa McMillan 12.4, 2.6 a game between them.

Nico Collins finished WR8 that year and Tetairoa McMillan WR16.

Tetairoa McMillan had 2 more targets than Nico Collins, 122 to 120.

Nico Collins had 103 more receiving yards than Tetairoa McMillan, 1117 to 1014.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger snap share, 87 percent against 71 percent.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger target share, 27 percent against 26 percent.

Byes and availability

Nico Collins is off in Week 8 and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.9 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market-based projection when it does.