Should I start Nico Collins or Christian Watson in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Nico Collins's market-based projection is 14.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 7 market sources. That is the 18th highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Christian Watson's market-based projection is 14.7 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 21st highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Nico Collins, and the board ranks him 10th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Christian Watson, and the board ranks him 12th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 7, Nico Collins has been on the field for 71 percent of HOU snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 8 of the offence's 34 third down targets, had 0 of its 12 chances inside the five and seen 4 of its 26 two minute targets.

His 35 targets have averaged 12.5 air yards.

In Week 5 against TEN he caught 5 of 7 targets for 56 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against JAX he carried 1 time for 5 yards, caught 3 of 5 targets for 74 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against NYG he caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Christian Watson has been on the field for 77 percent of GB snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 21 of the offence's 88 third down targets, had 3 of its 21 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 66 targets have averaged 13.4 air yards.

In Week 6 against DAL he caught 3 of 8 targets for 64 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against DET he caught 5 of 8 targets for 57 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against CAR he caught 8 of 10 targets for 113 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Nico Collins played 15 games and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets.

That came to 8.0 targets a game, a 59 percent catch rate and 15.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Christian Watson played 10 games and scored 132.4 PPR points, 13.2 a game, finishing WR46.

He caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 18 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Nico Collins was available for 5 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Nico Collins scored 15.1 PPR points a game and Christian Watson 13.2, 1.8 a game between them.

Nico Collins finished WR8 that year and Christian Watson WR46.

Nico Collins had 65 more targets than Christian Watson, 120 to 55.

Nico Collins had 506 more receiving yards than Christian Watson, 1117 to 611.

This season Christian Watson holds the bigger snap share, 77 percent against 71 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 22 percent each.

Byes and availability

Nico Collins is off in Week 8 and Christian Watson in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

Christian Watson is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

0.2 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.