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Start Luther Burden III or A.J. Brown? Week 6

Updated Oct 18, 8:06 AM ET.

Start A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III

Brown projects lower, 11.8 to 12.6, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 17 for Brown, 51 for Burden.

Start

A.J. Brown

WR · NE · vs NYJ

Market projects
11.8
fantasy pts
NYJ D vs WR
28.5
10th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share
44%
Through Week 1
Target share
13%
Through Week 1
Sit

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · at ATL

Market projects
12.6
fantasy pts
ATL D vs WR
37.7
6th most to WRs (2026)

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Also deciding this week

Our Week 6 call

Start A.J. Brown over Luther Burden III in Week 6.

Market-based projections have A.J. Brown at 11.8 points and Luther Burden III at 12.6, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. A.J. Brown still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 17 against 51, and that outweighs a gap this size.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 12.6 fantasy points for Luther Burden III, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Luther Burden III is 6 rushing yards, 52 receiving yards, 4-5 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (6, 13, 12 and 14 market sources).

Player markets imply 11.8 fantasy points for A.J. Brown, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for A.J. Brown is 52 receiving yards, 3-4 receptions and 0-1 touchdowns (12, 10 and 12 market sources).

That puts Luther Burden III 0.8 points ahead of A.J. Brown on the market projections.

Week 6 matchups

Luther Burden III and CHI visit ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 37.7 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 6th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 181 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against ATL.

A.J. Brown and NE host NYJ on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYJ allowed 28.5 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 10th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 129 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against NYJ.

By points allowed to the position, Luther Burden III has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

A.J. Brown is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 6

Through Week 1, A.J. Brown played 44 percent of NE snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 9 percent of the air yards and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 15 of 2025 against CLE: 26 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 84 yards, 14.4 PPR points.

In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

A.J. Brown, Week 17 of 2025 against BUF: 48 of 54 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 68 yards, 11.8 PPR points.

A.J. Brown, Week 16 of 2025 against WAS: 61 of 70 snaps, 12 targets and 9 catches for 95 yards, 18.5 PPR points.

Their other Week 6 calls

On the draft board

Ranked ahead

WR18 · CHI · bye 10

2026 vs anytime td line 1-4

Overall rank
45
Draft pick
no draft data
Tier
11

Ranked behind

WR23 · NE · bye 11

2025 vs rec yds line 6-9

Overall rank
59
Draft pick
no draft data
Tier
12

The board cards are draft figures, not the week's call. Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 6, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

The gap between them

  • Spots apart on the board14
  • Draft positionno current draft data for both
  • Tierstier 11 and tier 12
  • Board size326 draftable players

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Week 6 on the board

Elsewhere on the board