Should I start Luther Burden III or A.J. Brown in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Luther Burden III's market-based projection is 12.6 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 59th highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

A.J. Brown's market-based projection is 11.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 72nd highest figure of the 210 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Luther Burden III, and the board ranks him 45th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 39.

Live drafts hold no current pick on A.J. Brown, and the board ranks him 58th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 23.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Luther Burden III has been on the field for 64 percent of CHI snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 5 of the offence's 43 third down targets, had 2 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 28 two minute targets.

His 35 targets have averaged 9.0 air yards.

In Week 3 against PHI he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 7 of 11 targets for 61 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 4 against NYJ he carried 1 time for 11 yards, caught 4 of 6 targets for 63 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against GB he carried 4 times for 2 yards, caught 4 of 6 targets for 47 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, A.J. Brown has been on the field for 44 percent of NE snaps, drawn 13 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 3 of the offence's 11 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 0 of its 6 two minute targets.

His 4 targets have averaged 4.8 air yards.

In Week 1 against SEA he caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Luther Burden III played 15 games and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 78 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 A.J. Brown played 15 games and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets.

That came to 8.1 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 12.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 15 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 A.J. Brown scored 14.7 PPR points a game and Luther Burden III 8.5, 6.2 a game between them.

Luther Burden III finished WR48 that year and A.J. Brown WR11.

A.J. Brown had 61 more targets than Luther Burden III, 121 to 60.

A.J. Brown had 351 more receiving yards than Luther Burden III, 1003 to 652.

This season Luther Burden III holds the bigger snap share, 64 percent against 44 percent.

This season Luther Burden III holds the bigger target share, 22 percent against 13 percent.

Byes and availability

Luther Burden III is off in Week 10 and A.J. Brown in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.8 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.