Start Ja'Marr Chase or Nico Collins? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 9:11 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Chase projects lower, 18.4 to 18.8, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 4 for Chase, 21 for Collins.

Start

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · CIN · at BAL

Market projects: 18.4; recent weeks avg
BAL D vs WR: 34.1; 11th most to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 96 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 75%; Through Week 5
Target share: 20%; Through Week 5

Sit

Nico Collins

WR · HOU · vs NYG

Market projects: 18.8; recent weeks avg
NYG D vs WR: 31.1; 14th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 78 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 71%; Through Week 6
Target share: 23%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Nico Collins for Ja'Marr Chase?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Ja'Marr Chase projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games), Nico Collins 155 (15.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Ja'Marr Chase over Nico Collins.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Ja'Marr Chase over Nico Collins in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Ja'Marr Chase at 18.4 points and Nico Collins at 18.8, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Ja'Marr Chase still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 4 against 21, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Ja'Marr Chase this week yet, so his 18.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (18.4 and 18.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Nico Collins this week yet, so his 18.8 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (24.7, 16.4 and 15.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Nico Collins yet. His market-based projections were 24.7, 16.4 and 15.4 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 18.8, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Nico Collins is 0.6 touchdowns (7 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Ja'Marr Chase yet. His market-based projections were 18.4 and 18.4 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 18.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Ja'Marr Chase is 0.6 touchdowns (8 market sources).

That puts Nico Collins 0.4 points ahead of Ja'Marr Chase on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Nico Collins and HOU host NYG on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYG allowed 31.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 14th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 132 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NYG.

Ja'Marr Chase and CIN visit BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 34.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 11th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 176 yards and 0.3 touchdowns a game against BAL.

By points allowed to the position, Ja'Marr Chase has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Nico Collins is not on the injury report.

Ja'Marr Chase is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Nico Collins played 71 percent of HOU snaps, drew 23 percent of the targets, earned 31 percent of the air yards and had 16 percent of the red zone chances.

Nico Collins, Week 1 against BUF: 57 of 79 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 10 targets and 7 catches for 75 yards, 1 touchdown.

Nico Collins, Week 4 against DAL: 38 of 55 snaps, 8 targets and 7 catches for 118 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Nico Collins, Week 5 against TEN: 47 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 56 yards.

Nico Collins, Week 6 against JAX: 46 of 63 snaps, 1 carry for 5 yards, 5 targets and 3 catches for 74 yards.

Through Week 5, Ja'Marr Chase played 75 percent of CIN snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

Ja'Marr Chase, Week 2 against HOU: 53 of 60 snaps, 9 targets and 7 catches for 75 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Ja'Marr Chase, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 12 targets and 9 catches for 98 yards, 1 touchdown.

Ja'Marr Chase, Week 4 against JAX: 15 of 76 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Ja'Marr Chase, Week 5 against MIA: 58 of 65 snaps, 10 targets and 6 catches for 77 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Nico Collins played 15 games for HOU and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets and 793 air yards.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Ja'Marr Chase played 16 games for CIN and scored 313.6 PPR points, 19.6 a game, finishing WR4.

He caught 125 of 185 targets for 1412 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 21 red zone targets and 772 air yards.

He was on the field for 94 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Nico Collins for Ja'Marr Chase?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Ja'Marr Chase projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games), Nico Collins 155 (15.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Ja'Marr Chase over Nico Collins.
Should I drop Ja'Marr Chase for Nico Collins?
No. Keep Ja'Marr Chase: he projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games), Nico Collins 155 (15.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Ja'Marr Chase over Nico Collins.