Should I start Trey McBride or Michael Penix Jr. in Week 7?

Updated Oct 20, 11:21 AM ET. Week 8 answers post Tuesday.

Start Michael Penix Jr.: 98 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Trey McBride's 95 percent of the snaps and 27 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Trey McBride?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Trey McBride projects 169 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 136 (13.6 a game over 10 games). Michael Penix Jr. is listed questionable.

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Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

Trey McBride

TE11 · ARI · bye 14

2026 vs anytime td line 3-3

Market-based projection: 16.6 pts a game Wk 6 price
Overall rank: 84

Michael Penix Jr.

QB11 · ATL · bye 11

2026 vs pass yds line 2-2

Market-based projection: 15.3 pts a game Wk 6 price
Overall rank: 86

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The gap

Board size300 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Trey McBride, and the board ranks him 84th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 31.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Michael Penix Jr., and the board ranks him 86th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Trey McBride is 3.5 PPR points a game off 1 market across 6 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a tight end's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

No season market is posted for Michael Penix Jr., so the only market valuing him on this page is the draft room.

This season through Week 6

Through Week 6, Trey McBride has been on the field for 91 percent of ARI snaps, drawn 29 percent of the targets and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 18 of the offence's 63 third down targets, had 4 of its 19 chances inside the five and seen 13 of its 40 two minute targets.

His 65 targets have averaged 5.5 air yards.

In Week 4 against NYG he caught 7 of 12 targets for 31 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against DET he caught 9 of 10 targets for 66 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 6 against LAR he caught 7 of 9 targets for 53 yards and did not score.

Through Week 6, Michael Penix Jr. has been on the field for 99 percent of ATL snaps, dropped back 122 times and thrown 7.4 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 15 of 122 dropbacks and scrambled 3 times.

In Week 4 against NO he completed 15 of 20 passes for 223 yards and threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

In Week 5 against BAL he completed 19 of 32 passes for 240 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 8 yards.

In Week 6 against CHI he completed 19 of 33 passes for 225 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Trey McBride played 17 games and scored 315.9 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing TE1.

He caught 126 of 169 targets for 1239 yards and 11 touchdowns, with 32 red zone targets.

That came to 9.9 targets a game, a 75 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He threw for 1982 yards on 276 attempts with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 30.7 attempts a game at 7.2 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Trey McBride was available for 8 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 Trey McBride scored 18.6 PPR points a game and Michael Penix Jr. 13.7, 4.9 a game between them.

Trey McBride finished TE1 and Michael Penix Jr. QB33, which are two different ladders.

Trey McBride is a tight end and Michael Penix Jr. a quarterback, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Trey McBride is off in Week 14 and Michael Penix Jr. in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

Michael Penix Jr. is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Trey McBride?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Trey McBride projects 169 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 136 (13.6 a game over 10 games). Michael Penix Jr. is listed questionable.
Should I drop Trey McBride for Michael Penix Jr.?
No. Keep Trey McBride: he projects 169 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 136 (13.6 a game over 10 games). Michael Penix Jr. is listed questionable.