Late round quarterbacks: what the ADP gap from QB1 to QB12 tells you

Sixty nine picks between the first starter and the last

Josh Allen is the first quarterback off the board on September 3, at an average pick of 33.5. Jared Goff is the twelfth, at 102.4. In a 12 team league that is the difference between a late third round pick and a mid ninth round pick, 68.9 picks apart, for two players who will both start every week in a one quarterback league.

No other position has a gap like that between its first and twelfth starter. RB1 to RB12 runs from 1.5 to 22.2, a span of 20.7 picks. WR1 to WR12 runs from 2.8 to 21.3, a span of 18.5. The quarterback position is priced three times wider, and the reason is simple: in a one quarterback league every team starts one, only 12 are needed, and the room knows the twelfth is not far behind the first in weekly output.

The ladder has one gap that matters

Source: Parlae board, Sep 3 2026, PPR.

Walk the gaps. Allen to Maye is 18.5 picks, the only large shelf at the position. Maye, Burrow and Jackson then go inside five picks of each other, from 52.0 to 57.0. Prescott sits alone at 65.5. Then Daniels, Stafford, Hurts, Purdy, Williams and Lawrence, six starters, go between 74.1 and 92.4, an average of one every three picks.

And the bottom of the starting group is not a cliff at all. Goff, Mahomes and Herbert go at 102.4, 104.2 and 104.8. The twelfth, thirteenth and fourteenth quarterbacks are 2.4 picks apart. Bo Nix at 112.4 and Jaxson Dart at 119.3 are ten and seventeen picks further back. In a 12 team room, the drafter who waits longest at quarterback is choosing from three or four players the room prices identically.

What the spread says about waiting

The second column to read is the range. Allen's deviation is 8.0 picks. Every quarterback from Daniels down has a deviation above 11, and the range on each of them runs more than 50 picks. Daniels has gone from 43 to 109. Stafford from 41 to 115. Williams from 55 to 120. Lawrence from 61 to 128.

A range that wide means the average is not a reliable guide to when a player goes in your room. It means that in a meaningful share of drafts, a quarterback the board lists in the seventh round was still there in the ninth or tenth. The late quarterback plan does not rely on any single player falling. It relies on the fact that at least one of six or seven usually does, and the numbers say that is what happens.

What the pick buys instead

The cost of Allen at 33.5 is not Allen. It is whoever you would have taken at 33. On this board that pick is Brock Bowers at 34.6, Javonte Williams at 35.4, Emeka Egbuka at 35.7 or Tee Higgins at 36.2. All four are starters at positions where you need two or three.

The cost of Goff at 102.4 is Khalil Shakir at 102.0 or Tucker Kraft at 102.9. That is the whole argument in two numbers. Paying up for QB1 costs you a third round wide receiver or running back. Waiting for QB12 costs you a ninth round wide receiver. The gap in what you give up is far larger than the gap in what you get, because the twelfth quarterback starts every week and the ninth round receiver may not start at all.

Where this reverses

It reverses the moment your league starts two quarterbacks. The board carries a separate 2QB feed built from 7,045 drafts, and the same players are priced in a different world there. Allen goes at 1.8 in 2QB rooms. Maye goes at 7.7, Jackson at 8.6, Burrow at 9.7. Lawrence, the eleventh quarterback in one quarterback rooms at 92.4, goes at 20.6 in 2QB. Purdy goes from 86.3 to 19.8.

That is not the room being irrational in one format. It is the same room pricing 24 starters instead of 12. If your league is superflex or two quarterback, throw this guide's numbers away and read the 2QB column on the ADP page instead.

The decision

In a one quarterback league, the board says the position has one expensive shelf at the top and a flat floor from pick 74 to 105 with nine starters on it. Take Allen only if you are willing to pay a Bowers or Egbuka to do it. Otherwise the plan is to draft your quarterback from the group of six that goes between 74 and 92, and if all six are gone, take one of the three that go at 102 to 105 without regret. The room prices those three as the same player.

What you should not do is take the fifth or sixth quarterback in the sixth round. Prescott at 65.5 costs a Marvin Harrison Jr. or a TreVeyon Henderson and buys a player who is nine picks from a group of six priced nearly the same.

What to do with this

1. Before the draft, count the quarterbacks between 74 and 105 on the quarterback board. If there are still nine, the wait plan is on. If news has moved three of them earlier, it is thinner and you move up a round.
2. When you are on the clock in the seventh round and one of Daniels, Stafford or Hurts is there, take him if your roster has three running backs and three receivers. If it does not, take the skill player and come back for Purdy, Williams or Lawrence a round later.
3. Never take a second quarterback before round 13. The board prices Nix at 112 and Dart at 119 for a reason: the room does not expect to start them, and neither should you.