Tight end scarcity: how far the board drops after the top tier

Two prices, then a hole

On the September 3 board, Trey McBride is the first tight end taken, at an average pick of 29.1. Brock Bowers follows at 34.6. Then the position stops. The third tight end, Colston Loveland, averages 54.9, which is a 20.3 pick gap between the second player at the position and the third.

Nothing at running back or wide receiver looks like that. The board's own tier rule flags a shelf at a gap of three picks or more, and the widest gap anywhere in the first 50 overall picks is 3.4, between Omarion Hampton and Zay Flowers. The tight end position opens with a gap six times that size.

The twelfth starter tells the same story from the other end. RB12 on the board is Hampton at 22.2. WR12 is Nico Collins at 21.3. TE12 is Mark Andrews at 131.4. In a 12 team league the last starting tight end goes 109 picks after the last starting back, in the 11th round.

The full ladder

Source: Parlae board, Sep 3 2026, PPR.

Three shelves, not one

Read the gap column and the position is not one cliff followed by a slope. It has three distinct shelves, and the players between them cluster tightly.

The first shelf is under Bowers, 20.3 picks. The second is under Pitts, 12.5 picks, and it separates the four young or second contract tight ends going in rounds five to seven from the veteran group. The third is under Goedert, 18.8 picks, and it separates the veteran group from everyone else.

Inside the veteran group the prices are nearly flat. Kittle, Kraft, Kelce, LaPorta and Goedert go between 93.6 and 112.6, five starting tight ends inside 19 picks. Kraft to Goedert is 9.7 picks for four players. The room has no strong preference among them, and that is useful information for anyone who has not taken a tight end by round eight.

The spreads are widest where the price is flat

The feed carries each player's earliest and latest pick across 7,848 drafts. For the top two the room is fairly settled. McBride's standard deviation is 4.5 picks. Bowers, on 2,544 drafts, has a deviation of 7.2 and has gone from 15 to 50.

The veteran cluster is the least settled group of starters on the board at any position. Kittle has gone from 51 to 150 with a deviation of 16.4. Kelce has gone from 51 to 147 with a deviation of 21.2. Goedert has a deviation of 21.3 and has been taken as early as 57 and as late as 154. Rooms genuinely disagree about whether these players are fifth round picks or thirteenth round picks, and in your room that disagreement is a chance to get one late.

Loveland sits in between: an average of 54.9, a deviation of 9.7, and a range from 29 to 81 on 2,340 drafts. He is the tight end the room is still arguing about at a starter's price.

What each plan costs

The cost of a tight end is never the tight end. It is the player you did not take at that pick.

At 29 to 35, where McBride and Bowers go, the board is offering DeVonta Smith at 29.5, Kyren Williams at 31.4, Breece Hall at 32.3, Josh Allen at 33.5 and Javonte Williams at 35.4. That is the price of a top two tight end: a wide receiver or running back the room ranks 30th overall.

At 94 to 113, where the veteran cluster goes, the board is offering RJ Harvey at 94.6, Quentin Johnston at 95.2, Jordan Addison at 96.8, Khalil Shakir at 102.0 and Jared Goff at 102.4. That is the price of Kittle or Kelce: a player the room ranks around 100th overall.

The expensive place to buy is the middle. Loveland, Warren, Fannin and Pitts cost picks 55 to 81, where the board is still handing out running backs ranked 21st to 31st at the position and wide receivers ranked 26th to 39th, and those four tight ends carry deviations from 8.4 to 10.6 picks. You pay a starter's price for the position's widest uncertainty.

The decision

Two plans fit the shape of this board. Take McBride or Bowers in the third round and treat the position as done, accepting that the cost is a 30th overall player. Or wait for the veteran cluster in rounds eight and nine, where five starters go inside 19 picks and at least one usually falls past his average.

The plan that does not fit is the one most drafters take: the fifth to seventh round tight end, bought because the top two are gone and the next shelf looks far away. The shelf under Pitts is 12.5 picks. The one under Goedert is 18.8. The room has told you where the position drops, and it is not at pick 55.

If you are choosing between the top two, the compare page puts them side by side: 5.5 picks apart, both tier one, so the gap is inside one tier and your slot decides.

What to do with this

1. Open the tight end board before your draft and write down the three shelves: under Bowers, under Pitts, under Goedert. Your tight end comes from just above one of them, never from the middle of a cluster.
2. If you take McBride or Bowers, do it at or before pick 35 and do not draft a second tight end until round 13. If you wait, the plan is Kittle, Kraft, Kelce, LaPorta or Goedert between picks 94 and 113, and you take whichever of them is still there.
3. Check the latest pick column on the rankings page for the veteran group in the week of your draft. Any of them with a latest pick past 140 has fallen two rounds in a real room recently, and can fall in yours.