Zero RB, Hero RB, robust RB: how each plan looks on a market priced board

Count the backs by round before you pick a plan

Every running back plan is a bet on where the position runs dry. So before choosing one, count how many running backs the room takes in each round. On the September 3 board, in a 12 team league, it goes like this.

Source: Parlae board, Sep 3 2026, PPR, positions counted by average pick.

The first two rounds are split exactly in half, six backs and six receivers each. And the running back supply does not thin out gradually. It has holes. Round seven has two backs. Round nine has one. Anyone planning to "grab running backs later" needs to know that later means round six and round eight specifically, because rounds seven and nine barely have any.

Robust RB: three backs by round four

The robust plan takes running backs with at least three of the first four picks. On this board that means two from rounds one and two, then one of Love at 27.3, Kyren Williams at 31.4, Breece Hall at 32.3 or Javonte Williams at 35.4 in round three, or one of Etienne at 37.1, Skattebo at 39.9, Swift at 44.2 or Irving at 46.1 in round four.

What it costs is the receiver room. Round three is the deepest receiver round on the board, seven of them from Zay Flowers at 25.6 to Tee Higgins at 36.2, and the robust drafter skips it. His first receiver comes in round four at the earliest, and his second comes from the round five group: Luther Burden at 54.1, Rome Odunze at 54.4, Mike Evans at 55.4, Christian Watson at 57.9. Those four are the entire receiver supply in round five. If two other teams in the room are also waiting on receivers, the robust drafter's WR2 is a sixth round player.

The market spread on his backs is tight, which is the plan's real advantage. The round three and four backs carry deviations of 3.4 to 5.3 picks. The room agrees on what they are.

Hero RB: one back, then receivers

The hero plan takes one running back in round one or two and then fills receivers until the position forces a second back. On this board the second back arrives in round six, and round six is the best place on the board to arrive: five backs from Rhamondre Stevenson at 61.6 to Jadarian Price at 72.8, more than in rounds three, four or five.

The hero drafter's receivers come from the deep rounds: two of the seven third round receivers if he picks at the turn, or one third round and one fourth round receiver from the group of six between Ladd McConkey at 38.4 and Terry McLaurin at 48.6.

The risk is that round six is where the spread opens. Price has gone from 44 to 118 across 3,380 drafts, the most drafted player on the board, with a deviation of 10.8. Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are teammates priced 3.1 picks apart, which is the room saying it does not know who starts. The hero drafter's RB2 is a coin the room has not finished flipping.

Zero RB: no back until round six

The zero plan takes no running back in the first five rounds. The receivers it buys are the best on the board: two from round one and two, the third round group, the fourth round group. By round five a zero RB team can have five starting receivers and a top tight end.

Then it needs backs, and the board says exactly where they are and where they are not. Round six has five. Round seven has two, Rico Dowdle at 73.6 and Chuba Hubbard at 82.0. Round eight has four: J.K. Dobbins at 87.1, Kenny Gainwell at 90.6, Jonathon Brooks at 92.9, RJ Harvey at 94.6. Round nine has Aaron Jones at 105.6 and nobody else.

So the zero drafter does not "take backs late." He takes one in round six and two in round eight, or he ends up in round ten choosing from Monangai, Mason, Croskey-Merritt and White. The plan works on this board only if the round six and round eight picks are spent on backs, no matter who is sitting there at receiver.

The players he ends up with are the highest variance on the board. Brooks has gone from 60 to 127 with a deviation of 12.4. Harvey from 64 to 123. Dobbins from 60 to 119. That is the point of the plan: the room cannot price these players, so some of them will be worth far more than pick 90, and the zero drafter owns three tries at it.

The three plans side by side

The decision

The board does not pick a plan for you, but it rules one version out. The version where you "see how it goes" and take backs whenever they look good does not work on a board with two backs in round seven and one in round nine. Every plan here has to commit to a round six back, and the zero plan has to commit to two round eight backs as well.

If your pick is in the first four, you have a first round back at 1.5 to 7.4 with a deviation under 2, and hero is the natural fit. If your pick is at the turn, robust gets you two of the six second round backs, and the position is done before it gets uncertain.

What to do with this

1. Before your draft, open the running back board and count the backs by round yourself. If round seven still has two and round nine has one, the plans above hold. If the news has moved three backs into round seven, the hero and zero plans get easier.
2. Write your round six pick as "RB" on the sheet whichever plan you run. It is the last round on the board with five backs in it.
3. Run the plan once in the mock draft tool from your actual slot before the real draft. If the zero version leaves you with Aaron Jones as RB2, you have learned that for free.