Start Sam Darnold or Bo Nix? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:16 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Bo Nix over Sam Darnold

Start

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · at ARI

Market projects: 16.2; recent weeks avg
ARI D vs QB: 23.2; 3rd most to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs KC

Market projects: 15.0; recent weeks avg
KC D vs QB: 13.4; 3rd fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 86%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Bo Nix?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Bo Nix projects 163 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.3 a game over 10 games), Sam Darnold 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Sam Darnold.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Bo Nix over Sam Darnold in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Bo Nix at 16.2 points and Sam Darnold at 15.0, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Bo Nix this week yet, so his 16.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.0 and 16.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Sam Darnold this week yet, so his 15.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (14.5 and 15.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Bo Nix at ADP 116 and Sam Darnold at 155.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Bo Nix yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.3 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Sam Darnold yet. His market-based projections were 14.5 and 15.5 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 15.0, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Bo Nix 1.2 points ahead of Sam Darnold on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Bo Nix and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 23.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 252 yards and 2.8 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.6 interceptions.

Sam Darnold and SEA host KC on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

KC allowed 13.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 4 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 229 yards and a touchdown a game against KC, with an interception.

By points allowed to the position, Bo Nix has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 202 times and threw an average of 4.9 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 3 against LAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 7 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 4 against SF: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 214 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 5 against LAC: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 123 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 6 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 3 yards.

Through Week 6, Sam Darnold played 86 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 166 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 3 against WAS: 67 of 67 snaps, 31 of 45 passes for 379 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 5 against SF: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 6 against DEN: 85 of 85 snaps, 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 19 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Bo Nix?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Bo Nix projects 163 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.3 a game over 10 games), Sam Darnold 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Sam Darnold.
Should I drop Bo Nix for Sam Darnold?
No. Keep Bo Nix: he projects 163 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.3 a game over 10 games), Sam Darnold 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Sam Darnold.