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Should I start Chase Brown or Justin Jefferson in Week 7?

Updated Oct 21, 4:21 AM ET.

Start Chase Brown: 70 percent of the snaps and 56 percent of the carries over their last 3 games, against Justin Jefferson's 67 percent of the snaps and 21 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

Should I drop Justin Jefferson for Chase Brown?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Chase Brown projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 11 games), Justin Jefferson 100 (9.1 a game over 11 games).

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Both players' season market-based projection, their usage this season and their last full season's numbers.

RB14 · CIN · bye 6

2026 vs carries line 2-3

Overall rank
19

WR9 · MIN · bye 6

2026 vs anytime td line 2-2

Market-based projection
15.6 pts a game

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The gap

  • Board size303 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Chase Brown, and the board ranks him 19th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 5; 2QB: ADP 19.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Justin Jefferson, and the board ranks him 24th overall on the rest of his evidence.

By format he goes standard: ADP 4; 2QB: ADP 15.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Chase Brown is 14.2 PPR points a game off 2 markets across 9 market sources. That is 70 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Justin Jefferson's market-based projection is 15.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 31st highest figure of the 198 players with a market-based projection.

Chase Brown's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 5

Through Week 5, Chase Brown has been on the field for 70 percent of CIN snaps, taken 65 percent of the carries, drawn 15 percent of the targets and had 29 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 5 of the offence's 46 third down targets, had 4 of its 12 chances inside the five and seen 7 of its 33 two minute targets.

His 28 targets have come 0.9 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 3 against PIT he carried 13 times for 61 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 8 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against JAX he carried 9 times for 10 yards, caught 11 of 11 targets for 71 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against MIA he carried 13 times for 39 yards, caught 3 of 4 targets for 21 yards and did not score.

Through Week 5, Justin Jefferson has been on the field for 74 percent of MIN snaps, drawn 25 percent of the targets and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 11 of the offence's 39 third down targets, had 0 of its 2 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 10 two minute targets.

His 24 targets have averaged 11.0 air yards.

In Week 2 against CHI he caught 3 of 6 targets for 55 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against TB he caught 2 of 2 targets for 32 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against NO he carried 1 time for -11 yards, caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Chase Brown played 17 games and scored 282.6 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing RB7.

He carried 232 times for 1019 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 69 of 88 targets for 437 more yards.

That came to 13.6 carries a game at 4.4 yards a carry and 4.1 catches a game.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Justin Jefferson played 17 games and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets.

That came to 8.3 targets a game, a 60 percent catch rate and 13 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Side by side

In 2025 Chase Brown scored 16.6 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson 11.9, 4.8 a game between them.

Chase Brown finished RB7 and Justin Jefferson WR21, which are two different ladders.

Chase Brown is a running back and Justin Jefferson a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Both are off in Week 6, so a roster holding the pair has that one week to cover twice.

What would change the answer

Chase Brown has only a partial projection, so the market half of this page is whole for only one of them.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Justin Jefferson for Chase Brown?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Chase Brown projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 11 games), Justin Jefferson 100 (9.1 a game over 11 games).

  • Should I drop Chase Brown for Justin Jefferson?

    No. Keep Chase Brown: he projects 155 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 11 games), Justin Jefferson 100 (9.1 a game over 11 games).

Both players in full

Week 7 on the board

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