Should I start Noah Gray or Drew Sample in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Noah Gray's market-based projection is 3.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 6 market sources. That is the 121st highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Drew Sample's market-based projection is 2.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 11 market sources. That is the 130th highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Noah Gray, and the board ranks him 187th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Drew Sample, and the board ranks him 196th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Noah Gray has been on the field for 58 percent of KC snaps, drawn 7 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 4 of the offence's 65 third down targets, had 1 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 29 two minute targets.

His 17 targets have averaged 6.3 air yards.

In Week 7 against SEA he caught 3 of 3 targets for 44 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against DEN he caught 2 of 2 targets for 15 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against NYJ he caught 1 of 1 target for 11 yards and did not score.

Through Week 9, Drew Sample has been on the field for 51 percent of CIN snaps, drawn 3 percent of the targets and had 3 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 68 third down targets, had 0 of its 20 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 47 two minute targets.

His 8 targets have averaged 0.9 air yards.

In Week 7 against BAL he caught 2 of 2 targets for 24 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against TEN he was not given the ball.

In Week 9 against ATL he was not given the ball.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Noah Gray played 16 games and scored 38.8 PPR points, 2.4 a game, finishing TE59.

He caught 21 of 37 targets for 178 yards and 0 touchdowns, with 1 red zone target.

That came to 2.3 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 52 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Drew Sample played 17 games and scored 31.9 PPR points, 1.9 a game, finishing TE64.

He caught 15 of 20 targets for 106 yards and 1 touchdown, with 1 red zone target.

That came to 1.2 targets a game, a 75 percent catch rate and 7.1 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 52 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Drew Sample was available for 1 game more.

Head to head

In 2025 Noah Gray scored 2.4 PPR points a game and Drew Sample 1.9, 0.5 a game between them.

Noah Gray finished TE59 that year and Drew Sample TE64.

Noah Gray had 17 more targets than Drew Sample, 37 to 20.

Noah Gray had 72 more receiving yards than Drew Sample, 178 to 106.

This season Noah Gray holds the bigger snap share, 58 percent against 51 percent.

This season Noah Gray holds the bigger target share, 7 percent against 3 percent.

What would change the answer

0.6 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.