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Should I start Kaelon Black or MarShawn Lloyd in Week 9?

Updated Nov 4, 6:11 AM ET.

Start Kaelon Black: 30 percent of the snaps and 35 percent of the carries over their last 3 games, against MarShawn Lloyd's 31 percent of the snaps and 25 percent of the carries. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

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Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

RB52 · SF · bye 8

Overall rank
155

RB53 · GB · bye 11

2026 vs carries line 4-4

Market-based projection
4.9 pts a game Wk 8 price
Overall rank
160

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The gap

  • Board size306 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Kaelon Black, and the board ranks him 155th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on MarShawn Lloyd, and the board ranks him 160th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 48.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Kaelon Black is 1.4 PPR points a game off 1 market across 6 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market-based projection for MarShawn Lloyd is 1.2 PPR points a game off 1 market across 3 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Kaelon Black's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season so far

Through Week 7, Kaelon Black has been on the field for 30 percent of SF snaps, taken 31 percent of the carries, drawn 3 percent of the targets and had 16 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 50 third down targets, had 3 of its 24 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 30 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have come 2.0 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 5 against SEA he carried 6 times for 16 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against WAS he carried 8 times for 34 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 3 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against ATL he carried 12 times for 63 yards, caught 1 of 3 targets for -4 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, MarShawn Lloyd has been on the field for 35 percent of GB snaps, taken 35 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 88 third down targets, had 3 of its 21 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 17 targets have come 0.8 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 6 against DAL he carried 8 times for 10 yards, caught 0 of 1 target for 0 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against DET he carried 6 times for 20 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 10 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against CAR he carried 3 times for 7 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 9 yards and did not score.

Their last full seasons

Kaelon Black is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

The season feed carries no line for MarShawn Lloyd in the last completed season.

Head to head

This season MarShawn Lloyd holds the bigger snap share, 35 percent against 30 percent.

This season MarShawn Lloyd holds the bigger share of the carries, 35 percent against 31 percent.

Byes and availability

Kaelon Black is off in Week 8 and MarShawn Lloyd in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

Should I drop MarShawn Lloyd?

Both players in full

Week 9 on the board

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