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Should I start Ted Hurst or Tim Patrick in Week 7?

Updated Oct 21, 4:11 PM ET.

Start Tim Patrick: 82 percent of the snaps and 10 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Ted Hurst's 45 percent of the snaps and 10 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

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Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

WR76 · TB · bye 10

2026 vs anytime td line 1-5

Market-based projection
3.5 pts a game Wk 6 price
Overall rank
199

WR77 · NYJ · bye 13

2025 vs anytime td line 3-13

Market-based projection
4.0 pts a game Wk 6 price
Overall rank
200

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The gap

  • Board size310 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Ted Hurst, and the board ranks him 199th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Tim Patrick, and the board ranks him 200th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Ted Hurst is 1.1 PPR points a game off 1 market across 12 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a wide receiver's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market-based projection for Tim Patrick is 1.0 PPR points a game off 1 market across 6 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a wide receiver's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Ted Hurst's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 6

Through Week 6, Ted Hurst has been on the field for 59 percent of TB snaps, drawn 12 percent of the targets and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 53 third down targets, had 0 of its 7 chances inside the five and seen 8 of its 41 two minute targets.

His 22 targets have averaged 16.1 air yards.

In Week 4 against GB he caught 2 of 3 targets for 25 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against DAL he was not given the ball.

In Week 6 against PIT he caught 3 of 6 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

Through Week 6, Tim Patrick has been on the field for 82 percent of NYJ snaps, drawn 10 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 14 third down targets and seen 3 of its 10 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have averaged 7.7 air yards.

In Week 5 against CLE he caught 2 of 3 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against NE he caught 1 of 3 targets for 15 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

Ted Hurst is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

In 2025 Tim Patrick played 16 games and scored 51.7 PPR points, 3.2 a game, finishing WR107.

He caught 15 of 24 targets for 187 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 9 red zone targets.

That came to 1-2 targets a game, a 63 percent catch rate and 13 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 31 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Head to head

This season Tim Patrick holds the bigger snap share, 82 percent against 59 percent.

This season Ted Hurst holds the bigger target share, 12 percent against 10 percent.

Byes and availability

Ted Hurst is off in Week 10 and Tim Patrick in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

Both players in full

Week 7 on the board

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