Start Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 10:31 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Start Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers

Start

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at SEA

Market projects: 16.4; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 12.3; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 13 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT · at NO

Market projects: 15.3; fantasy pts
NO D vs QB: 18.5; 14th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 74 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 99%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Aaron Rodgers 142 (14.2 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers, 16.4 to 15.3 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Patrick Mahomes at 16.4 points and Aaron Rodgers at 15.3, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Patrick Mahomes at ADP 107 and Aaron Rodgers at 231.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 221 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.3 fantasy points for Aaron Rodgers, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Aaron Rodgers is 232 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (12, 12, 7 and 13 market sources).

That puts Patrick Mahomes 1.1 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit SEA on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 12.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 157 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.2 interceptions a game.

Aaron Rodgers and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 14th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 256 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against NO, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Rodgers has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 174 times and threw an average of 6.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 6, Aaron Rodgers played 99 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 252 times and threw an average of 7.7 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 3 against CIN: 62 of 62 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 292 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 12 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 4 against CLE: 72 of 72 snaps, 22 of 40 passes for 299 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 5 against IND: 58 of 60 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 6 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 6 against TB: 79 of 79 snaps, 33 of 47 passes for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Patrick Mahomes?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Aaron Rodgers 142 (14.2 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers, 16.4 to 15.3 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Aaron Rodgers?
No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Aaron Rodgers 142 (14.2 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers, 16.4 to 15.3 projected PPR points.