Start Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 10:31 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Patrick Mahomes over Bo Nix

Start

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at SEA

Market projects: 16.4; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 12.3; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 13 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · at ARI

Market projects: 15.7; recent weeks avg
ARI D vs QB: 22.1; 4th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 65 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Bo Nix for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Bo Nix 163 (16.3 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Bo Nix.

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Patrick Mahomes rookie cards Bo Nix rookie cards

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Our Week 7 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Bo Nix in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Patrick Mahomes at 16.4 points and Bo Nix at 15.7, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Bo Nix this week yet, so his 15.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (16.0, 16.3 and 14.9); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Patrick Mahomes at ADP 107 and Bo Nix at 116.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 221 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 12 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Bo Nix yet. His market-based projections were 16.0, 16.3 and 14.9 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 15.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Patrick Mahomes 0.6 points ahead of Bo Nix on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit SEA on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 12.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 157 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.2 interceptions a game.

Bo Nix and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 22.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 4th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 247 yards and 2.7 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Bo Nix has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 174 times and threw an average of 6.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 6, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 202 times and threw an average of 4.9 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 3 against LAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 7 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 4 against SF: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 214 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 5 against LAC: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 123 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 6 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 3 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Bo Nix for Patrick Mahomes?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Bo Nix 163 (16.3 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Bo Nix.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Bo Nix?
No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Bo Nix 163 (16.3 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Bo Nix.