Start AJ Barner or Darren Waller? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 2:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Darren Waller over AJ Barner

Start

Darren Waller

TE · CAR · vs TB

Market projects: 8.1; recent weeks avg
TB D vs TE: 15.7; 10th most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 67 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 46%; Through Week 6
Target share: 12%; Through Week 6

Sit

AJ Barner

TE · SEA · vs KC

Market projects: 6.8; fantasy pts
KC D vs TE: 20.0; 3rd most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 73 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 90%; Through Week 6
Target share: 13%; Through Week 6

Should I drop AJ Barner for Darren Waller?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Darren Waller projects 78 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.1 a game over 11 games), AJ Barner 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over AJ Barner.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Darren Waller over AJ Barner in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Darren Waller at 8.1 points and AJ Barner at 6.8, a gap of 1.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Darren Waller this week yet, so his 8.1 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 6 (9.7 and 6.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Darren Waller yet. His market-based projections were 9.7 and 6.5 points in Weeks 4 and 6, an average of 8.1, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Darren Waller is 0.3 touchdowns (3 market sources).

Player markets imply 6.8 fantasy points for AJ Barner, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for AJ Barner is 25 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (10, 10 and 11 market sources).

That puts Darren Waller 1.3 points ahead of AJ Barner on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Darren Waller and CAR host TB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TB allowed 15.7 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 6 games, the 10th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 56 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against TB.

AJ Barner and SEA host KC on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

KC allowed 20.0 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 5 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 73 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against KC.

By points allowed to the position, AJ Barner has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Darren Waller is not on the injury report.

AJ Barner is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Darren Waller played 46 percent of CAR snaps, drew 12 percent of the targets, earned 10 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

Darren Waller, Week 2 against ATL: 29 of 66 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 33 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Darren Waller, Week 3 against CLE: 39 of 77 snaps, 8 targets and 5 catches for 51 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 4 against DET: 40 of 75 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 36 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 6 against PHI: 36 of 79 snaps, 2 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Through Week 6, AJ Barner played 90 percent of SEA snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 4 percent of the air yards and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

AJ Barner, Week 3 against WAS: 61 of 67 snaps, 9 targets and 5 catches for 69 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 4 against LAC: 54 of 60 snaps, 3 targets and 1 catch for 12 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 5 against SF: 60 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 20 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 6 against DEN: 79 of 85 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Darren Waller played 9 games for MIA and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets and 210 air yards.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, AJ Barner played 17 games for SEA and scored 147.3 PPR points, 8.7 a game, finishing TE14.

He caught 52 of 68 targets for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 248 air yards.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop AJ Barner for Darren Waller?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Darren Waller projects 78 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.1 a game over 11 games), AJ Barner 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over AJ Barner.
Should I drop Darren Waller for AJ Barner?
No. Keep Darren Waller: he projects 78 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.1 a game over 11 games), AJ Barner 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over AJ Barner.