Should I drop Darren Waller for Cade Otton?

Not on these numbers alone. Darren Waller projects 78 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.1 a game over 11 games) and Cade Otton 77 (7.7 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over Cade Otton.

Start Cade Otton or Darren Waller? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 4:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Darren Waller over Cade Otton

Start

Darren Waller

TE · CAR · vs TB

Market projects: 8.1; recent weeks avg
TB D vs TE: 15.7; 10th most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 67 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 46%; Through Week 6
Target share: 12%; Through Week 6

Sit

Cade Otton

TE · TB · at CAR

Market projects: 7.5; recent weeks avg
CAR D vs TE: 16.0; 9th most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 46 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 95%; Through Week 6
Target share: 16%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Cade Otton for Darren Waller?

Not on these numbers alone. Cade Otton projects 77 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.7 a game over 10 games) and Darren Waller 78 (7.1 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over Cade Otton.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Darren Waller over Cade Otton in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Darren Waller at 8.1 points and Cade Otton at 7.5, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Darren Waller this week yet, so his 8.1 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 6 (9.7 and 6.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Cade Otton this week yet, so his 7.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (7.7, 7.7 and 7.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Darren Waller yet. His market-based projections were 9.7 and 6.5 points in Weeks 4 and 6, an average of 8.1, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Darren Waller is 0.3 touchdowns (3 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Cade Otton yet. His market-based projections were 7.7, 7.7 and 7.2 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 7.5, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Cade Otton is 0.3 touchdowns (8 market sources).

That puts Darren Waller 0.6 points ahead of Cade Otton on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Darren Waller and CAR host TB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TB allowed 15.7 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 6 games, the 10th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 56 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against TB.

Cade Otton and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 16.0 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 5 games, the 9th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 56 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against CAR.

By points allowed to the position, Cade Otton has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Darren Waller is not on the injury report.

Cade Otton is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Darren Waller played 46 percent of CAR snaps, drew 12 percent of the targets, earned 10 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

Darren Waller, Week 2 against ATL: 29 of 66 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 33 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Darren Waller, Week 3 against CLE: 39 of 77 snaps, 8 targets and 5 catches for 51 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 4 against DET: 40 of 75 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 36 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 6 against PHI: 36 of 79 snaps, 2 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Through Week 6, Cade Otton played 95 percent of TB snaps, drew 16 percent of the targets, earned 12 percent of the air yards and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Cade Otton, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 56 yards.

Cade Otton, Week 4 against GB: 60 of 64 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 37 yards.

Cade Otton, Week 5 against DAL: 66 of 72 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 25 yards.

Cade Otton, Week 6 against PIT: 74 of 74 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 4 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Darren Waller played 9 games for MIA and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets and 210 air yards.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Cade Otton played 16 games for TB and scored 122.2 PPR points, 7.6 a game, finishing TE22.

He caught 59 of 81 targets for 572 yards and 1 touchdown, with 5 red zone targets and 261 air yards.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Cade Otton for Darren Waller?
Not on these numbers alone. Cade Otton projects 77 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.7 a game over 10 games) and Darren Waller 78 (7.1 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over Cade Otton.
Should I drop Darren Waller for Cade Otton?
Not on these numbers alone. Darren Waller projects 78 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.1 a game over 11 games) and Cade Otton 77 (7.7 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Darren Waller over Cade Otton.