Start Brian Robinson or Rico Dowdle? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:21 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Start Rico Dowdle over Brian Robinson

Start

Rico Dowdle

RB · PIT · at NO

Market projects: 8.0; fantasy pts
NO D vs RB: 29.7; most to RBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 81 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 36%; Through Week 6
Target share: 9%; Through Week 6

Sit

Brian Robinson

RB · ATL · vs SF

Market projects: 6.9; fantasy pts
SF D vs RB: 22.9; 11th most to RBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 39 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 31%; Through Week 6
Target share: 4%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Rico Dowdle for Brian Robinson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Robinson projects 43 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (4.3 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 30 (3.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Brian Robinson, 8.0 to 6.9 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Rico Dowdle over Brian Robinson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Rico Dowdle at 8.0 points and Brian Robinson at 6.9, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Brian Robinson's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Rico Dowdle at ADP 76 and Brian Robinson at 210.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 8.0 fantasy points for Rico Dowdle, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Rico Dowdle is 34 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (12, 10, 11 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 6.9 fantasy points for Brian Robinson, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Brian Robinson is 0.3 touchdowns (3 market sources).

That puts Rico Dowdle 1.1 points ahead of Brian Robinson on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Rico Dowdle and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 29.7 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the most in the league.

Running backs ran for 117 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game against NO and caught passes for 31 more yards.

Brian Robinson and ATL host SF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

SF allowed 22.9 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 11th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 80 yards and 0.3 touchdowns a game against SF and caught passes for 43 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Rico Dowdle has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Rico Dowdle is not on the injury report.

Brian Robinson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Rico Dowdle played 36 percent of PIT snaps, took 35 percent of the carries, drew 9 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

Rico Dowdle, Week 1 against ATL: 39 of 67 snaps, 8 carries for 15 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 2 against NE: 18 of 70 snaps, 7 carries for 22 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 22 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 6 against TB: 21 of 79 snaps, 7 carries for 40 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 9 yards.

Through Week 6, Brian Robinson played 31 percent of ATL snaps, took 31 percent of the carries, drew 4 percent of the targets and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

Brian Robinson, Week 3 against GB: 19 of 71 snaps, 10 carries for 50 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards, 1 touchdown.

Brian Robinson, Week 4 against NO: 24 of 57 snaps, 14 carries for 62 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards, 3 touchdowns.

Brian Robinson, Week 5 against BAL: 14 of 64 snaps, 7 carries for 16 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Brian Robinson, Week 6 against CHI: 10 of 55 snaps, 2 carries for 1 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 9 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Rico Dowdle played 17 games for CAR and scored 216.3 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing RB18.

He ran 236 times for 1076 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 39 of 50 targets for 297 yards.

He was on the field for 56 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Brian Robinson played 17 games for SF and scored 62.5 PPR points, 3.7 a game, finishing RB63.

He ran 92 times for 400 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 8 of 12 targets for 25 yards.

He was on the field for 17 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Rico Dowdle for Brian Robinson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Robinson projects 43 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (4.3 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 30 (3.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Brian Robinson, 8.0 to 6.9 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Brian Robinson for Rico Dowdle?
No. Keep Brian Robinson: he projects 43 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (4.3 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 30 (3.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Brian Robinson, 8.0 to 6.9 projected PPR points.