Start Rico Dowdle or Alvin Kamara? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 2:56 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Start Rico Dowdle over Alvin Kamara

Start

Rico Dowdle

RB · PIT · at NO

Market projects: 8.0; fantasy pts
NO D vs RB: 29.7; most to RBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 81 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 36%; Through Week 6
Target share: 9%; Through Week 6

Sit

Alvin Kamara

RB · NO · vs PIT · Questionable

Market projects: 7.2; fantasy pts
PIT D vs RB: 20.4; 15th fewest to RBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 34 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 31%; Through Week 6
Target share: 12%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Rico Dowdle for Alvin Kamara?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Alvin Kamara projects 62 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 30 (3.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Alvin Kamara, 8.0 to 7.2 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Alvin Kamara is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Rico Dowdle over Alvin Kamara in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Rico Dowdle at 8.0 points and Alvin Kamara at 7.2, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Rico Dowdle at ADP 76 and Alvin Kamara at 164.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 8.0 fantasy points for Rico Dowdle, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Rico Dowdle is 34 rushing yards, 11 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (12, 10, 11 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 7.2 fantasy points for Alvin Kamara, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Alvin Kamara is 17 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (11, 11, 11 and 12 market sources).

That puts Rico Dowdle 0.8 points ahead of Alvin Kamara on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Rico Dowdle and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 29.7 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the most in the league.

Running backs ran for 117 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game against NO and caught passes for 31 more yards.

Alvin Kamara and NO host PIT on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

PIT allowed 20.5 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 15th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 86 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against PIT and caught passes for 35 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Rico Dowdle has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Rico Dowdle is not on the injury report.

Alvin Kamara is listed as questionable with a undisclosed injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Rico Dowdle played 36 percent of PIT snaps, took 35 percent of the carries, drew 9 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

Rico Dowdle, Week 1 against ATL: 39 of 67 snaps, 8 carries for 15 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 2 against NE: 18 of 70 snaps, 7 carries for 22 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 22 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 6 against TB: 21 of 79 snaps, 7 carries for 40 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 9 yards.

Through Week 6, Alvin Kamara played 31 percent of NO snaps, took 28 percent of the carries, drew 12 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

Alvin Kamara, Week 3 against LV: 24 of 74 snaps, 9 carries for 36 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards.

Alvin Kamara, Week 4 against ATL: 28 of 74 snaps, 7 carries for 23 yards, 7 targets and 5 catches for 35 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Alvin Kamara, Week 5 against MIN: 12 of 45 snaps, 3 carries for 12 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for -6 yards.

Alvin Kamara, Week 6 against NYG: 19 of 72 snaps, 7 carries for 34 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 35 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Rico Dowdle played 17 games for CAR and scored 216.3 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing RB18.

He ran 236 times for 1076 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 39 of 50 targets for 297 yards.

He was on the field for 56 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Alvin Kamara played 11 games for NO and scored 100.7 PPR points, 9.2 a game, finishing RB46.

He ran 131 times for 471 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 33 of 39 targets for 186 yards.

He was on the field for 63 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Rico Dowdle for Alvin Kamara?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Alvin Kamara projects 62 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 30 (3.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Alvin Kamara, 8.0 to 7.2 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Alvin Kamara is listed questionable.
Should I drop Alvin Kamara for Rico Dowdle?
No. Keep Alvin Kamara: he projects 62 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 30 (3.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Alvin Kamara, 8.0 to 7.2 projected PPR points. Alvin Kamara is listed questionable.