Start Jalen Nailor or Xavier Hutchinson? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 4:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Jalen Nailor over Xavier Hutchinson

Start

Jalen Nailor

WR · LV · vs LAR

Market projects: 5.1; recent weeks avg
LAR D vs WR: 26.9; 4th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 17 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 51%; Through Week 6
Target share: 9%; Through Week 6

Sit

Xavier Hutchinson

WR · HOU · vs NYG

Market projects: 4.0; recent weeks avg
NYG D vs WR: 31.1; 14th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 38 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 54%; Through Week 6
Target share: 17%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Xavier Hutchinson for Jalen Nailor?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Jalen Nailor projects 49 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (4.9 a game over 10 games), Xavier Hutchinson 39 (3.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Jalen Nailor over Xavier Hutchinson.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Jalen Nailor over Xavier Hutchinson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Jalen Nailor at 5.1 points and Xavier Hutchinson at 4.0, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Jalen Nailor this week yet, so his 5.1 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 6 (4.3 and 5.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Xavier Hutchinson this week yet, so his 4.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (4.6, 3.8 and 3.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Jalen Nailor yet. His market-based projections were 4.3 and 5.9 points in Weeks 4 and 6, an average of 5.1, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Jalen Nailor is 0.2 touchdowns (3 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Xavier Hutchinson yet. His market-based projections were 4.6, 3.8 and 3.7 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 4.0, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Jalen Nailor 1.0 points ahead of Xavier Hutchinson on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Jalen Nailor and LV host LAR on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

LAR allowed 27.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 4th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 104 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against LAR.

Xavier Hutchinson and HOU host NYG on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYG allowed 31.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 14th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 132 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NYG.

By points allowed to the position, Xavier Hutchinson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Jalen Nailor is not on the injury report.

Xavier Hutchinson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Jalen Nailor played 51 percent of LV snaps, drew 9 percent of the targets, earned 12 percent of the air yards and had 2 percent of the red zone chances.

Jalen Nailor, Week 2 against LAC: 38 of 63 snaps, 3 targets and 1 catch for 9 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 3 against NO: 40 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 1 catch for 16 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 4 against KC: 19 of 84 snaps, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 6 against BUF: 42 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 1 catch for 9 yards.

Through Week 6, Xavier Hutchinson played 54 percent of HOU snaps, drew 17 percent of the targets, earned 20 percent of the air yards and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Xavier Hutchinson, Week 3 against IND: 29 of 54 snaps, 2 carries for 4 yards, 6 targets and 3 catches for 51 yards.

Xavier Hutchinson, Week 4 against DAL: 17 of 55 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 46 yards.

Xavier Hutchinson, Week 5 against TEN: 27 of 66 snaps, 5 targets and 4 catches for 65 yards.

Xavier Hutchinson, Week 6 against JAX: 34 of 63 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 10 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Jalen Nailor played 17 games for MIN and scored 100.7 PPR points, 5.9 a game, finishing WR61.

He caught 29 of 53 targets for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 332 air yards.

He was on the field for 65 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Xavier Hutchinson played 17 games for HOU and scored 98.0 PPR points, 5.8 a game, finishing WR64.

He caught 35 of 57 targets for 428 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 282 air yards.

He was on the field for 57 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Xavier Hutchinson for Jalen Nailor?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Jalen Nailor projects 49 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (4.9 a game over 10 games), Xavier Hutchinson 39 (3.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Jalen Nailor over Xavier Hutchinson.
Should I drop Jalen Nailor for Xavier Hutchinson?
No. Keep Jalen Nailor: he projects 49 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (4.9 a game over 10 games), Xavier Hutchinson 39 (3.9 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Jalen Nailor over Xavier Hutchinson.