Should I start Chris Olave or A.J. Brown in Week 7?

The market-based projections

Chris Olave's market-based projection is 15.4 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 14th highest figure of the 161 players with a market-based projection.

A.J. Brown's market-based projection is 14.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 17th highest figure of the 161 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Chris Olave, and the board ranks him 12th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In standard drafts he goes at ADP 9.

Live drafts hold no current pick on A.J. Brown, and the board ranks him 15th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 23.

This season through Week 6

Through Week 6, Chris Olave has been on the field for 86 percent of NO snaps, drawn 27 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 17 of the offence's 59 third down targets, had 1 of its 19 chances inside the five and seen 8 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 61 targets have averaged 12.8 air yards.

In Week 4 against ATL he caught 8 of 12 targets for 116 yards and did not score.

In Week 5 against MIN he caught 4 of 6 targets for 46 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against NYG he caught 4 of 7 targets for 43 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 6, A.J. Brown has been on the field for 44 percent of NE snaps, drawn 23 percent of the targets and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 21 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 4 of its 15 two minute targets.

His 14 targets have averaged 8.4 air yards.

In Week 1 against SEA he caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against NYJ he caught 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Chris Olave played 16 games and scored 269.0 PPR points, 16.8 a game, finishing WR6.

He caught 100 of 156 targets for 1163 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets.

That came to 9.8 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 11.6 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 84 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 A.J. Brown played 15 games and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets.

That came to 8.1 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 12.9 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Chris Olave was available for 1 game more.

Head to head

In 2025 Chris Olave scored 16.8 PPR points a game and A.J. Brown 14.7, 2.1 a game between them.

Chris Olave finished WR6 that year and A.J. Brown WR11.

Chris Olave had 35 more targets than A.J. Brown, 156 to 121.

Chris Olave had 160 more receiving yards than A.J. Brown, 1163 to 1003.

This season Chris Olave holds the bigger snap share, 86 percent against 44 percent.

This season Chris Olave holds the bigger target share, 27 percent against 23 percent.

Byes and availability

Chris Olave is off in Week 8 and A.J. Brown in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

A.J. Brown is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

0.8 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.