Should I start Germie Bernard or Baker Mayfield in Week 8?

Updated Oct 27, 11:11 AM ET. Week 9 answers post Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Germie Bernard: 92 percent of the snaps and 25 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Baker Mayfield's 95 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

Should I drop Germie Bernard for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games), Germie Bernard 51 (5.7 a game over 9 games).

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Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

Germie Bernard

WR36 · PIT · bye 9

2026 vs anytime td line 1-6

Market-based projection: 13.0 pts a game Wk 7 price
Overall rank: 89

Baker Mayfield

QB11 · TB · bye 10

2026 vs pass yds line 1-3

Market-based projection: 16.0 pts a game Wk 7 price
Overall rank: 90

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The gap

Board size293 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Germie Bernard, and the board ranks him 89th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Baker Mayfield, and the board ranks him 90th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 20.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Germie Bernard is 2.2 PPR points a game off 1 market across 7 market sources. That is 30 percent of what a wide receiver's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 1.7 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 0 percent of what a quarterback's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Germie Bernard's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 7

Through Week 7, Germie Bernard has been on the field for 61 percent of PIT snaps, drawn 15 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 11 of the offence's 58 third down targets, had 0 of its 7 chances inside the five and seen 5 of its 41 two minute targets.

His 37 targets have averaged 5.7 air yards.

In Week 5 against IND he carried 1 time for 4 yards, caught 6 of 9 targets for 80 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against TB he caught 11 of 12 targets for 87 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 7 against NO he caught 3 of 5 targets for 27 yards and did not score.

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield has been on the field for 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and thrown 8.2 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 22 of 129 dropbacks and scrambled 9 times.

In Week 2 against CLE he completed 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 4 times for 29 yards.

In Week 3 against MIN he completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

In Week 7 against CAR he completed 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

Germie Bernard is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

In 2025 Baker Mayfield played 17 games and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He threw for 3693 yards on 543 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 31.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Side by side

Germie Bernard is a wide receiver and Baker Mayfield a quarterback, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Germie Bernard is off in Week 9 and Baker Mayfield in Week 10, so either can cover the other's bye.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Germie Bernard for Baker Mayfield?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games), Germie Bernard 51 (5.7 a game over 9 games).
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Germie Bernard?
No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games), Germie Bernard 51 (5.7 a game over 9 games).