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Should I start Baker Mayfield or John Metchie III in Week 8?

Updated Oct 27, 10:06 PM ET.

Latest

  • : Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Baker Mayfield: 95 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against John Metchie III's 46 percent of the snaps and 14 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

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Both players' season market-based projection, their usage this season and their last full season's numbers.

QB10 · TB · bye 10

2026 vs pass yds line 1-3

Overall rank
78

WR32 · CAR · bye 5

2026 vs anytime td line 1-4

Market-based projection
3.7 pts a game

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The gap

  • Board size294 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Baker Mayfield, and the board ranks him 78th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 20.

Live drafts hold no current pick on John Metchie III, and the board ranks him 79th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 17.2 PPR points a game off 4 markets across 4 market sources. That is 80 percent of what a quarterback's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

John Metchie III's market-based projection is 3.7 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 90th highest figure of the 199 players with a market-based projection.

Baker Mayfield's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 7

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield has been on the field for 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and thrown 8.2 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 22 of 129 dropbacks and scrambled 9 times.

In Week 2 against CLE he completed 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 4 times for 29 yards.

In Week 3 against MIN he completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

In Week 7 against CAR he completed 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

Through Week 7, John Metchie III has been on the field for 46 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 3 third down targets, had 0 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 0 of its 1 two minute target.

His 4 targets have averaged 5.3 air yards.

In Week 7 against TB he caught 2 of 4 targets for 20 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Baker Mayfield played 17 games and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He threw for 3693 yards on 543 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 31.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 John Metchie III played 16 games and scored 71.9 PPR points, 4.5 a game, finishing WR87.

He caught 33 of 48 targets for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 5 red zone targets.

That came to 3.0 targets a game, a 69 percent catch rate and 8.3 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 43 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield was available for 1 game more.

Side by side

In 2025 Baker Mayfield scored 16.6 PPR points a game and John Metchie III 4.5, 12.1 a game between them.

Baker Mayfield finished QB12 and John Metchie III WR87, which are two different ladders.

Baker Mayfield is a quarterback and John Metchie III a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Baker Mayfield is off in Week 10 and John Metchie III in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

Baker Mayfield has only a partial projection, so the market half of this page is whole for only one of them.

Both players in full

Week 8 on the board

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