Josh Allen or Brock Purdy: who should I start in Week 3?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Josh Allen at 23.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 2nd highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

The player markets price Brock Purdy at 18.2 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 15th highest figure of the 186 players the books price.

Where the draft room has them

Josh Allen goes at ADP 2, an average pick of 24.1, and the board has him QB1 in tier 1.

His earliest recorded pick is 2 and his latest 37, a standard deviation of 8.5 picks.

He appears in 529 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

Over 14 days drafters have taken Allen 8.6 picks earlier.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 2.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Brock Purdy: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 75th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 20.

This season through Week 2

Through Week 2, Josh Allen has been on the field for 100 percent of BUF snaps, dropped back 70 times and thrown 10.3 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 11 of 70 dropbacks and scrambled 6 times.

In Week 1 against HOU he completed 20 of 29 passes for 334 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 5 times for 24 yards.

In Week 2 against DET he completed 20 of 31 passes for 248 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 11 times for 72 yards.

Through Week 2, Brock Purdy has been on the field for 93 percent of SF snaps, dropped back 61 times and thrown 5.9 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 4 of 61 dropbacks and scrambled 5 times.

In Week 1 against LAR he completed 25 of 34 passes for 205 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 5 times for 29 yards.

In Week 2 against MIA he completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 3 times for 30 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Allen played 17 games and scored 374.6 PPR points, 22.0 a game, finishing QB1.

He threw for 3668 yards on 460 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns.

That came to 27.1 attempts a game at 8.0 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Brock Purdy played 9 games and scored 187.4 PPR points, 20.8 a game, finishing QB24.

He threw for 2167 yards on 284 attempts with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns.

That came to 31.6 attempts a game at 7.6 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Josh Allen was available for 8 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Josh Allen scored 22.0 PPR points a game and Brock Purdy 20.8, 1.2 a game between them.

Josh Allen finished QB1 that year and Brock Purdy QB24.

Josh Allen had 176 more pass attempts than Brock Purdy, 460 to 284.

Josh Allen had 1501 more passing yards than Brock Purdy, 3668 to 2167.

This season Josh Allen holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 93 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Josh Allen is off in Week 7 and Brock Purdy in Week 8, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

5.3 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.