Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Kaelon Black in Week 10?

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Dalton Kincaid, and the board ranks him 53rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Kaelon Black, and the board ranks him 54th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

Dalton Kincaid's market-based projection is 9.7 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 7 market sources. That is the 55th highest figure of the 209 players with a market-based projection.

The market-based projection for Kaelon Black is 7.8 PPR points a game off 2 markets across 10 market sources. That is 70 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Kaelon Black's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Dalton Kincaid has been on the field for 66 percent of BUF snaps, drawn 17 percent of the targets and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 9 of the offence's 58 third down targets, had 0 of its 27 chances inside the five and seen 5 of its 32 two minute targets.

His 38 targets have averaged 9.4 air yards.

In Week 6 against LV he caught 7 of 8 targets for 38 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against BAL he caught 4 of 6 targets for 86 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against MIN he caught 3 of 3 targets for 28 yards and did not score.

Through Week 9, Kaelon Black has been on the field for 29 percent of SF snaps, taken 30 percent of the carries, drawn 3 percent of the targets and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 57 third down targets, had 3 of its 28 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 30 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have come 2.0 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 6 against WAS he carried 8 times for 34 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 3 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against ATL he carried 12 times for 63 yards, caught 1 of 3 targets for -4 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against LV he carried 11 times for 70 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Dalton Kincaid played 12 games and scored 126.1 PPR points, 10.5 a game, finishing TE20.

He caught 39 of 49 targets for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 4.1 targets a game, a 80 percent catch rate and 14.6 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 40 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Kaelon Black is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

Side by side

Dalton Kincaid is a tight end and Kaelon Black a running back, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Dalton Kincaid is off in Week 7 and Kaelon Black in Week 8, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

Kaelon Black has only a partial projection, so the market half of this page is whole for only one of them.