Should I start Deebo Samuel Sr. or Josh Downs in Week 10?

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Deebo Samuel Sr., and the board ranks him 47th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Josh Downs, and the board ranks him 126th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market has Deebo Samuel Sr. at 4.2 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 30 percent of what a wide receiver's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market-based projection for Josh Downs is 1.7 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 30 percent of what a wide receiver's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been on the field for 57 percent of SF snaps, drawn 15 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 35 third down targets, had 2 of its 14 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 21 two minute targets.

His 20 targets have averaged 2.6 air yards.

In Week 3 against ARI he carried 2 times for 14 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against DEN he carried 3 times for 44 yards, caught 5 of 6 targets for 26 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 5 against SEA he carried 2 times for 4 yards, caught 2 of 3 targets for 21 yards and did not score.

Through Week 9, Josh Downs has been on the field for 81 percent of IND snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 18 of the offence's 73 third down targets, had 0 of its 22 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 44 two minute targets.

His 57 targets have averaged 9.6 air yards.

In Week 7 against MIN he caught 2 of 4 targets for 18 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against JAX he caught 4 of 5 targets for 23 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against DAL he caught 3 of 6 targets for 24 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Deebo Samuel Sr. played 16 games and scored 188.2 PPR points, 11.8 a game, finishing WR25.

He caught 72 of 99 targets for 727 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets.

That came to 6.2 targets a game, a 73 percent catch rate and 10.1 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 72 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 16 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 11.8 PPR points a game and Josh Downs 8.5, 3.2 a game between them.

Deebo Samuel Sr. finished WR25 that year and Josh Downs WR44.

Deebo Samuel Sr. had 11 more targets than Josh Downs, 99 to 88.

Deebo Samuel Sr. had 161 more receiving yards than Josh Downs, 727 to 566.

This season Josh Downs holds the bigger snap share, 81 percent against 57 percent.

This season Josh Downs holds the bigger target share, 20 percent against 15 percent.

Byes and availability

Deebo Samuel Sr. is off in Week 8 and Josh Downs in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

Deebo Samuel Sr. is listed as out on the injury report.