Josh Downs or Deebo Samuel Sr.: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Josh Downs at 10.1 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 15 books. That is the 90th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Deebo Samuel Sr. at 9.8 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 16 books. That is the 92nd highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room has them

Drafters have formed no consensus on Josh Downs: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 72nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 124.

Deebo Samuel Sr. goes at ADP 6, an average pick of 106.8, and the board has him WR30 in tier 8.

His earliest recorded pick is 85 and his latest 121, a standard deviation of 9.3 picks.

He appears in 290 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

Over 14 days drafters have taken Samuel 6.1 picks earlier.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 123.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Josh Downs has been on the field for 89 percent of IND snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 5 third down targets, had 0 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 4 targets have averaged 9.0 air yards.

In Week 1 against BAL he caught 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been on the field for 42 percent of SF snaps, drawn 21 percent of the targets and had 30 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 10 third down targets, had 1 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 7 targets have averaged 2.4 air yards.

In Week 1 against LAR he carried 1 time for 12 yards, caught 6 of 7 targets for 48 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5.5 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

The season feed carries no line for Deebo Samuel Sr. in the last completed season.

Head to head

This season Josh Downs holds the bigger snap share, 89 percent against 42 percent.

This season Deebo Samuel Sr. holds the bigger target share, 21 percent against 14 percent.

Byes and availability

Josh Downs is off in Week 13 and Deebo Samuel Sr. in Week 8, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.3 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.