Should I start Derrick Henry or Garrett Wilson in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Derrick Henry's market-based projection is 14.8 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 5 market sources. That is the 41st highest figure of the 216 players with a market-based projection.

Garrett Wilson's market-based projection is 13.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 11 market sources. That is the 46th highest figure of the 216 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Derrick Henry, and the board ranks him 25th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Garrett Wilson, and the board ranks him 27th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 9, Derrick Henry has been on the field for 55 percent of BAL snaps, taken 68 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 51 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 72 third down targets, had 16 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 49 two minute targets.

His 14 targets have come 2.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 7 against CIN he carried 17 times for 45 yards, caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against BUF he carried 11 times for 53 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against JAX he carried 17 times for 57 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Garrett Wilson has been on the field for 88 percent of NYJ snaps, drawn 28 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 20 of the offence's 61 third down targets, had 2 of its 14 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 34 two minute targets.

His 63 targets have averaged 10.4 air yards.

In Week 6 against NE he caught 4 of 6 targets for 44 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against MIA he caught 2 of 3 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against LV he caught 6 of 12 targets for 83 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Derrick Henry played 17 games and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.

He carried 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 more yards.

That came to 18.1 carries a game at 5.2 yards a carry and 0.9 catches a game.

He was on the field for 54 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Garrett Wilson played 7 games and scored 99.5 PPR points, 14.2 a game, finishing WR62.

He caught 36 of 59 targets for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 2 red zone targets.

That came to 8.4 targets a game, a 61 percent catch rate and 11.0 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 89 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Derrick Henry was available for 10 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 Derrick Henry scored 16.4 PPR points a game and Garrett Wilson 14.2, 2.2 a game between them.

Derrick Henry finished RB8 and Garrett Wilson WR62, which are two different ladders.

Derrick Henry is a running back and Garrett Wilson a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Both are off in Week 13, so a roster holding the pair has that one week to cover twice.

Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

0.9 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.