Should I start Joe Burrow or Nico Collins in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Joe Burrow's market-based projection is 22.0 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 16 market sources. That is the 3rd highest figure of the 217 players with a market-based projection.

Nico Collins's market-based projection is 12.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 58th highest figure of the 217 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Joe Burrow, and the board ranks him 34th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Nico Collins, and the board ranks him 36th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Joe Burrow has been on the field for 99 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 321 times and thrown 7.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 57 of 321 dropbacks and scrambled 10 times.

In Week 7 against BAL he completed 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 12 yards.

In Week 8 against TEN he completed 38 of 48 passes for 462 yards, threw 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and ran 3 times for 10 yards.

In Week 9 against ATL he completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 8 yards.

Through Week 9, Nico Collins has been on the field for 71 percent of HOU snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 9 of the offence's 45 third down targets, had 0 of its 12 chances inside the five and seen 4 of its 36 two minute targets.

His 39 targets have averaged 12.0 air yards.

In Week 6 against JAX he carried 1 time for 5 yards, caught 3 of 5 targets for 74 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against NYG he caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

In Week 9 against LAC he caught 4 of 4 targets for 55 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Joe Burrow played 8 games and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He threw for 1809 yards on 259 attempts with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 32.4 attempts a game at 7.0 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Nico Collins played 15 games and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets.

That came to 8.0 targets a game, a 59 percent catch rate and 15.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Nico Collins was available for 7 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 Joe Burrow scored 17.4 PPR points a game and Nico Collins 15.1, 2.4 a game between them.

Joe Burrow finished QB29 and Nico Collins WR8, which are two different ladders.

Joe Burrow is a quarterback and Nico Collins a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Joe Burrow is off in Week 6 and Nico Collins in Week 8, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

9.1 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.