Josh Allen or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 6?

The market-based projections

Josh Allen's market-based projection is 24.0 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 1st highest figure of the 159 players with a market-based projection.

Tetairoa McMillan's market-based projection is 14.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 46th highest figure of the 159 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room has them

Josh Allen goes at ADP 1, an average pick of 24.3, and the board has him QB1 in tier 1.

His earliest recorded pick is 1 and his latest 37, a standard deviation of 9.0 picks.

He appears in 16 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 2.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Tetairoa McMillan: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 31st overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Josh Allen has been on the field for 100 percent of BUF snaps, dropped back 164 times and thrown 9.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 22 of 164 dropbacks and scrambled 16 times.

In Week 3 against LAC he completed 16 of 26 passes for 204 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 7 times for 23 yards.

In Week 4 against NE he completed 23 of 33 passes for 253 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 5 times for 4 yards.

In Week 5 against LAR he completed 12 of 19 passes for 210 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 10 times for 121 yards.

Through Week 4, Tetairoa McMillan has been on the field for 87 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 27 percent of the targets and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 7 of the offence's 32 third down targets, had 3 of its 9 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 25 two minute targets.

His 39 targets have averaged 11.5 air yards.

In Week 2 against ATL he caught 5 of 10 targets for 101 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against CLE he caught 2 of 5 targets for 17 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against DET he caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Allen played 17 games and scored 374.6 PPR points, 22.0 a game, finishing QB1.

He threw for 3668 yards on 460 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns.

That came to 27.1 attempts a game at 8.0 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan played 17 games and scored 211.4 PPR points, 12.4 a game, finishing WR16.

He caught 70 of 122 targets for 1014 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets.

That came to 7.2 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 15 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Side by side

In 2025 Josh Allen scored 22.0 PPR points a game and Tetairoa McMillan 12.4, 9.6 a game between them.

Josh Allen finished QB1 and Tetairoa McMillan WR16, which are two different ladders.

Josh Allen is a quarterback and Tetairoa McMillan a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Josh Allen is off in Week 7 and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

9.2 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market-based projection when it does.