Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Josh Downs in Week 8?

Updated Oct 27, 8:16 AM ET. Week 9 answers post Tuesday.

Start Patrick Mahomes: 100 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Josh Downs's 83 percent of the snaps and 16 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

Should I drop Josh Downs for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games), Josh Downs 105 (11.7 a game over 9 games).

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Neither man carries a season projection right now, so this is their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, side by side.

Patrick Mahomes

QB19 · KC · bye 5

2026 vs pass yds line 3-3

Market-based projection: 16.3 pts a game Wk 7 price
Overall rank: 123

Josh Downs

WR50 · IND · bye 13

2026 vs anytime td line 0-7

Market-based projection: 10.8 pts a game Wk 7 price
Overall rank: 124

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The gap

Board size292 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Patrick Mahomes, and the board ranks him 123rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Josh Downs, and the board ranks him 124th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 1.2 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 0 percent of what a quarterback's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

The market-based projection for Josh Downs is 1.7 PPR points a game off 1 market across 1 market source. That is 30 percent of what a wide receiver's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Patrick Mahomes's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 7

Through Week 7, Patrick Mahomes has been on the field for 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 210 times and thrown 6.0 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 31 of 210 dropbacks and scrambled 12 times.

In Week 4 against LV he completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

In Week 6 against LAC he completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 3 times for 19 yards.

In Week 7 against SEA he completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 14 yards.

Through Week 7, Josh Downs has been on the field for 81 percent of IND snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 15 of the offence's 56 third down targets, had 0 of its 19 chances inside the five and seen 4 of its 30 two minute targets.

His 46 targets have averaged 10.7 air yards.

In Week 5 against PIT he caught 3 of 6 targets for 47 yards and did not score.

In Week 6 against TEN he carried 1 time for 7 yards, caught 4 of 8 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against MIN he caught 2 of 4 targets for 18 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes played 14 games and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He threw for 3587 yards on 502 attempts with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

That came to 35.9 attempts a game at 7.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Josh Downs played 16 games and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets.

That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 66 percent catch rate and 9.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Josh Downs was available for 2 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes scored 21.2 PPR points a game and Josh Downs 8.5, 12.7 a game between them.

Patrick Mahomes finished QB11 and Josh Downs WR44, which are two different ladders.

Patrick Mahomes is a quarterback and Josh Downs a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Patrick Mahomes is off in Week 5 and Josh Downs in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Josh Downs for Patrick Mahomes?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games), Josh Downs 105 (11.7 a game over 9 games).
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Josh Downs?
No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games), Josh Downs 105 (11.7 a game over 9 games).

Should I drop Josh Downs?