Should I start Kaelon Black or Patrick Mahomes in Week 10?

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Kaelon Black, and the board ranks him 78th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Patrick Mahomes, and the board ranks him 80th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Kaelon Black is 7.8 PPR points a game off 2 markets across 12 market sources. That is 70 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Patrick Mahomes's market-based projection is 16.9 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 19th highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Kaelon Black's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Kaelon Black has been on the field for 29 percent of SF snaps, taken 30 percent of the carries, drawn 3 percent of the targets and had 14 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 57 third down targets, had 3 of its 28 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 30 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have come 2.0 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 6 against WAS he carried 8 times for 34 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 3 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against ATL he carried 12 times for 63 yards, caught 1 of 3 targets for -4 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against LV he carried 11 times for 70 yards and did not score.

Through Week 9, Patrick Mahomes has been on the field for 99 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 289 times and thrown 5.6 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 49 of 289 dropbacks and scrambled 15 times.

In Week 7 against SEA he completed 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 14 yards.

In Week 8 against DEN he completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

In Week 9 against NYJ he completed 23 of 31 passes for 242 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 8 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

Kaelon Black is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes played 14 games and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He threw for 3587 yards on 502 attempts with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

That came to 35.9 attempts a game at 7.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Side by side

Kaelon Black is a running back and Patrick Mahomes a quarterback, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Kaelon Black is off in Week 8 and Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

Patrick Mahomes is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

Kaelon Black has only a partial projection, so the market half of this page is whole for only one of them.