Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Patrick Mahomes at 17.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 17 books. That is the 18th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price Trevor Lawrence at 16.6 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 24th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Patrick Mahomes: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 73rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 27.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Trevor Lawrence: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 94th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 22.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Patrick Mahomes has been on the field for 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 33 times and thrown 4.9 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 5 of 33 dropbacks and scrambled 4 times.

In Week 1 against DEN he completed 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 4 times for 27 yards.

Through Week 1, Trevor Lawrence has been on the field for 88 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 24 times and thrown 10.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 3 of 24 dropbacks.

In Week 1 against CLE he completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 3 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes played 14 games and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He threw for 3587 yards on 502 attempts with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

That came to 35.9 attempts a game at 7.1 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Trevor Lawrence played 17 games and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He threw for 4007 yards on 560 attempts with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

That came to 32.9 attempts a game at 7.2 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Trevor Lawrence was available for 3 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Patrick Mahomes scored 21.2 PPR points a game and Trevor Lawrence 20.6, 0.6 a game between them.

Patrick Mahomes finished QB11 that year and Trevor Lawrence QB4.

Trevor Lawrence had 58 more pass attempts than Patrick Mahomes, 560 to 502.

Trevor Lawrence had 420 more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes, 4007 to 3587.

This season Patrick Mahomes holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 88 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Patrick Mahomes is off in Week 5 and Trevor Lawrence in Week 7, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.9 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.