Fantasy baseball sleepers for 2027
Edouard Julien is the clearest 2027 sleeper bat: his 2026 expected wOBA of .338 was well above the .287 he produced, and he ranks only 1079 on our board. On the mound, Gabriel Hughes's 4.04 FIP sat well under his 6.33 ERA. Expected stats measure the quality of contact before defense and luck, so a big gap in a full season tends to close the next year. The lists cover hitters with 250 plate appearances and pitchers with 60 innings, outside our top 60.
Hitters whose contact beat their results
| Player | wOBA | xwOBA | PA | 2027 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Edouard Julien 2BCOL | .287 | .338 | 276 | #1079 |
Matt Vierling OFDET | .258 | .303 | 291 | #934 |
Will Smith CLAD | .345 | .389 | 276 | #307 |
J.T. Realmuto CPHI | .275 | .315 | 467 | #393 |
Carlos Narváez CBAL | .219 | .258 | 285 | #967 |
Patrick Bailey CCLE | .271 | .305 | 345 | #786 |
Corey Seager SSTEX | .320 | .350 | 436 | #327 |
| .285 | .314 | 627 | #166 | |
Luke Raley OFSEA | .313 | .341 | 287 | #782 |
Braden Montgomery OFCWS | .298 | .325 | 365 | #769 |
JJ Wetherholt 2BSTL | .318 | .345 | 619 | #222 |
| .305 | .331 | 609 | #123 | |
Trent Grisham OFNYY | .311 | .336 | 484 | #178 |
Hunter Feduccia CLAD | .286 | .311 | 251 | #1053 |
Adolis García OFPHI | .268 | .293 | 259 | #854 |
Mike Trout OFLAA | .354 | .378 | 634 | #137 |
Jarren Duran OFBOS | .274 | .298 | 608 | #93 |
Marcell Ozuna DHPIT | .276 | .300 | 280 | #514 |
Nico Hoerner 2BCHC | .297 | .320 | 689 | #113 |
Marcus Semien 2BNYM | .276 | .299 | 547 | #462 |
Bo Bichette 3BNYM | .309 | .330 | 696 | #124 |
Cam Smith OFHOU | .293 | .314 | 568 | #229 |
Dylan Crews OFWSH | .294 | .315 | 443 | #326 |
Lars Nootbaar OFAZ | .320 | .341 | 334 | #738 |
Mark Vientos 1BNYM | .283 | .304 | 295 | #879 |
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Pitchers whose ERA ran above their FIP
| Player | ERA | FIP | IP | 2027 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gabriel Hughes SPCOL | 6.33 | 4.04 | 64 | #1008 |
José Suarez RPATH | 5.87 | 3.85 | 61 | #872 |
Tanner Gordon SPCOL | 6.68 | 4.85 | 104 | #1147 |
Michael Lorenzen SPTOR | 7.21 | 5.45 | 127 | #1144 |
Kyle Freeland SPCOL | 6.65 | 5.09 | 135 | #1138 |
Kodai Senga SPNYM | 7.34 | 5.82 | 61 | #763 |
Gage Jump SPATH | 5.47 | 4.01 | 99 | #746 |
Zach Agnos RPCOL | 5.93 | 4.57 | 91 | #970 |
Patrick Sandoval SPBOS | 5.12 | 3.77 | 70 | #998 |
Jack Perkins SPATH | 6.10 | 4.77 | 121 | #823 |
Kyle Hart RPSD | 4.92 | 3.63 | 64 | #718 |
Jack Kochanowicz SPLAA | 6.19 | 4.97 | 64 | #1105 |
Connor Prielipp SPMIN | 4.87 | 3.73 | 126 | #486 |
Andrew Morris RPMIN | 4.40 | 3.29 | 74 | #491 |
Juan Mejia RPCOL | 5.27 | 4.17 | 70 | #679 |
Jacob deGrom SPTEX | 4.20 | 3.11 | 163 | #91 |
Dustin May SPMIL | 4.70 | 3.63 | 146 | #644 |
Jeff Hoffman RPMIN | 3.55 | 2.48 | 66 | #263 |
Rhett Lowder SPCIN | 5.74 | 4.71 | 133 | #916 |
Grayson Rodriguez SPLAA | 6.02 | 5.01 | 99 | #807 |
The other side: results ahead of contact
Top 150 hitters whose 2026 wOBA outran their expected wOBA. Their ranks already include a projection, but pay for the contact, not the line.
| Player | wOBA | xwOBA | PA | 2027 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ceddanne Rafaela OFBOS | .332 | .282 | 576 | #71 |
Chandler Simpson OFTB | .305 | .261 | 612 | #74 |
Hunter Goodman CCOL | .355 | .320 | 574 | #23 |
Liam Hicks CTB | .352 | .318 | 554 | #132 |
Randy Arozarena OFSEA | .379 | .347 | 670 | #30 |
Jake McCarthy OFCOL | .349 | .317 | 596 | #82 |
Alex Bregman 3BCHC | .357 | .326 | 702 | #96 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong OFCHC | .400 | .372 | 726 | #1 |
CJ Abrams SSWSH | .358 | .330 | 654 | #26 |
Seiya Suzuki OFCHC | .366 | .339 | 634 | #38 |
Rafael Devers 1BSF | .367 | .340 | 633 | #59 |
Luke Keaschall 2BMIN | .348 | .321 | 620 | #76 |
| .341 | .317 | 603 | #80 | |
Brandon Lowe 2BPIT | .354 | .330 | 656 | #43 |
Tyler Soderstrom OFATH | .349 | .327 | 453 | #135 |
See also the 2026 breakouts and busts.
By the Parlae deskStatcast data updated Oct 14, 2026 at 7:53 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number